RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

China: Rising tensions

The rising tensions between China, the EU, US, UK and Canada could have wide implications, from hurting the chances of ratifying the recent EU China investment deal to effects on the global supply of cotton.

Economic Comment

Japan: Crawling out of a recession

The first signs of Japan’s economic recovery are here, albeit tentative. More fiscal stimulus is on the way. More monetary stimulus might be on the way as well, since core inflation has been negative for three months in a row.

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic and external woes continue

Coronavirus cases are still increasing in Japan, which is holding back its economic recovery. Relations with China are still tense. If the economy weakens further, the Bank of Japan might start another round of stimulus.

Economic Comment

Japan: The reign of Suga

Yoshihide Suga has been elected as Japan’s new prime minister. His newly appointed cabinet signals policy continuity and conformity. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of recovery, although it remains quite weak.

Economic Comment

Japan: Wave of concern

As we expected, the Bank of Japan did not move during its last meeting and will likely remain in wait and see mode for a while. In the meantime, a second wave of coronavirus infections is hurting Japan’s economic recovery.

Economic Comment

Japan: Rising cases and rising tensions

The Bank of Japan will probably take a break from stimulus, for now. Meanwhile, coronavirus cases are on the rise again in Tokyo, as are tensions with China. Both represent downside risks to our outlook.

Economic Comment

De ECB kan helpen om begrotingsruimte te creëren (Dutch)

De ECB bezit inmiddels 20% van de publieke schuld van de EMU-landen. Door een deel van deze schuld weg te strepen kan de ECB helpen om begrotingsruimte te creëren. Het vergt goede afspraken, maar landen kunnen dan wel de financiële gevolgen van de coronacrisis opvangen.

Economic Comment

Japan: Economic recovery on the cards?

We expect the Japanese economy to recover moderately in the fourth quarter of 2018, and this will continue in the first quarter of 2019, but we do not foresee any surprises from the central bank in terms of policy changes. Inflation has not picked up yet, and risks remain tilted to the downside.

Economic Comment

The next US recession

The US yield curve is getting flatter, which means that long term rates are only slightly higher than short term rates. We expect the yield curve to invert in 2019, which means that long rates fall below short rates. This would signal a recession in 2020.

Economic Comment

Japan: Abe’s election ‘gamble’ turned into victory

Abe and his LDP-Komeito coalition were victorious at yesterday’s lower house elections. The disappointing election result for the opposition side is not surprising when one takes into account the short amount of time for a structured election campaign.

Economic Comment

Wel zon, maar geen komkommertijd voor de wereldeconomie (Dutch)

Het gaat niet slecht met de wereldeconomie, maar er is geen reden tot juichen. Politieke risico’s binnen en buiten Europa zijn nog steeds substantieel en er hangt onzekerheid boven financiële markten over de normalisatie van het monetaire beleid.