RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Outlook 2013: Middle East and North Africa

The revolution that shook the Arab world in 2011, continues to affect the region's economic performance and political stability. In addition, the region is sensitive to the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and slowing growth in the rest of the world.

Special

Outlook 2013: Russia and CIS

The outlook for economic growth in Russia and the CIS region for 2013 is mostly unchanged from our 2012 estimates. We discuss the economic policy options to boost economic growth next year. However the uncertain global economic backdrop poses a risk.

Special

Outlook 2013: China

Weakened external demand and only limited growth supporting policies from the Chinese government were the main factors explaining China's slowing growth rate in the first three quarters of 2012. Growth is expected to accelerate this year and in 2013.

Special

Outlook 2013: Emerging Asia

In 2013, global economic growth is expected to be 3?%, with growth estimated to remain subdued in the US (1?%), the eurozone (?%) and Japan (1%). China's economy is expected to grow by between 7?% and 8?%.

Special

Outlook 2013: Emerging Europe

The start of 2012 saw many Emerging European economies fall back into recession. Although the outlook for 2013 is somewhat less bleak, there is little reason for optimism. The region's proximity to the eurozone renders it vulnerable.

Special

Outlook 2013: Eurozone

While desperately in need of growth, eurozone's GDP is unlikely to pick up in the second half of this year. Although market sentiment regarding the European debt crisis seems to be on a cautious positive trend, the outlook for 2013 is bleak.

Special

Outlook 2013: Lower growth is the new reality

In 2013 the Dutch economy will show a very low growth rate of just 0.25%. Globally, the emerging markets will drive economic growth mostly. We project that, mainly as a result of the euro crisis, the global economy will grow by only 3.75% in 2013.

Special

Outlook 2013: Sub-Sahara Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa has grown rapidly over the past decade. Despite the global financial crisis of 2008-09, Sub-Saharan Africa has grown at an average of 4.7% between 2000-2010 and might experience accelerated growth relative to the past few years.

Special

Outlook 2013: United Kingdom

The UK recovery remains unimpressive due to harsh austerity measures in a weak macroeconomic environment. We maintain the view that the pace of fiscal adjustment must be slowed down so that recovery gets a chance.

Country Report

Argentina (Country Report)

Argentina's self-contradictory and interventionist macroeconomic policy mix is under more and more pressure. As the years of high growth seem to have ended, president's Cristina Kirchner's popularity has been falling rapidly.

Country Report

Maldives (Country Report)

The political situation in the Maldives escalated in February 2012, when President Nasheed resigned. With the presidential and general elections planned for 2013 and 2014, respectively, more political turmoil is expected.

Country Report

Qatar (Country Report)

The domestic social situation in Qatar is stable, but an escalation of the civil war in Syria and the conflict between Israel and Iran remain geopolitical risks. We estimate economic growth at 6.5% in 2012.

Country Report

Russia (Country Report)

The social unrest which marred Putin's presidency has not escalated, due to the government's fierce crackdown on opposition protests. Economic growth is forecast at a moderate 3.8% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2013.

Country Report

Taiwan (Country Report)

Taiwan's GDP growth is estimated to slow to 1.3% this year. Taiwan's banking sector is heavily exposed to the risky real estate and export sectors. Taiwan's has ample foreign exchange buffers to prevent liquidity problems.

Country Report

Indonesia (Country Update)

Indonesia's economy has shown great resilience and economic growth is expected to be around 6% this and next year. The political situation is less bright with the reform drive grinded to a halt and the ruling PD party connected to corruption scandals