RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Political risks in the eurozone (Special)

The eurozone's south is implementing austerity measures while the north is buying them the time to do so. Economic issues are usually extensively discussed. But what are the political risks that might render this strategy unfeasible?

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

In 12Q2, the Italian economy recorded its fourth quarterly decline. The economy will remain in recession in the second half of the year, but we expect the pace of contraction to moderate.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

Several emerging markets continue to experience a slowdown in growth. Growth in 12Q2 went down in both Russia and Turkey, while growth in China is likely to slow down further in Q3 as well. Meanwhile, industrial production in Mexico remained strong.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

French GDP stagnated in 12Q2 for the third quarter in a row. The recently presented 2013 budget shows that the budget deficit will be brought down predominantly by tax hikes. This does not bode well for domestic demand next year.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

UK GDP was revised further upwards in 12Q2. A number of indicators are pointing to a stronger recovery. That said, it makes sense to wait for the autumn data to draw a more definitive judgement on the underlying strength of the economy.

Country Report

Hungary (Country Report)

Hungary's economic situation leaves much to be desired. After contracting by nearly 7% in 2009, the economy grew by less than 2% in the subsequent years, only to fall back into recession at the start of 2012.

Economic Report

Bail-in: an alternative to bail-out of banks?

According to a European proposal by the European Commission, bail-in is one of the instruments every EU member state should have at its disposal in order to deal effectively with banking crises. This Special Report discusses bail-in in more detail.

Economic Report

Euro crisis: institutional tug-of-war

The Economic and Monetary Union still lacks a credible crisis mechanism. The current ECB approach provides only a temporary solution. A permanent solution most likely requires muddling through for some time yet.

Country Report

Brazil (Country Update)

Brazil's economic growth has been disappointing, with growth falling to 2.7% in 2011 and an expected 2% (at most) in 2012. The central bank has been lowering its policy rate to a record-low 7.5%.

Country Report

Sri Lanka (Country report)

Sri Lanka is an island situated in the Indian Sea. The end of the 26-year long civil war in May 2009 has majorly boosted its economic prospects. Overall, the socio-political situation seems to be the largest risk for Sri Lanka.

Country Report

Cyprus (Country update)

The Cypriot economy is deteriorating at an alarming speed. As the country's large financial sector is heavily exposed to Greek debt, its banks have been struggling to remain solvent.

Country Report

Lithuania (Country report)

Lithuania's recovery will slow in 2012, as domestic demand is still recovering and eurozone demand will be slow, reducing the growth of Lithuania's export sector.

Country Report

Uzbekistan (Country report)

Uzbekistan's political situation is stable, but only as it is ruled in an authoritarian manner by President Karimov. The social situation is troublesome, since economic, religious and press freedom are strictly limited and corruption continues.

Country Report

Mongolia (Country report)

Mongolia's economy is growing by double-digit rates on the back of investments in the mining sector and expansionary fiscal policies. Mongolia's export structure is vulnerable, as it exports only a few commodities, nearly all to China.

Country Report

South Korea (Country report)

South Korea's export oriented economy is weathering the global economic slowdown relatively well, although growth is slowing. Economic policy continues to focus on stability rather than supporting growth.