RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Romania (Country report)

Romania’s economy was severely impacted by the global crisis and only started to recover last year, reporting a 2% growth rate. We expect growth to slow in light of the eurozone recession and deleveraging by eurozone banks.

Country Report

Dominican Republic (Country report)

Economic growth in the Dominican Republic fell from 7.8% in 2010 to 4.1% last year, as the government had to rein in fiscal stimulus under an IMF standby-agreement. No major policy changes are expected.

Country Report

India (Country report)

Economic growth in India is expected to fall below the ‘magic’ 7% in fiscal year 2011/12. Five state elections are planned for 2012, which will give more information on the popularity of the government.

Country Report

Malaysia (Country report)

Being one of the most open countries in Asia, Malaysia is sensitive to swings in external demand. Demand for Malaysia’s electronics is expected to be weaker in 2012, but a rise of oil and gas prices would benefit Malaysia as a net energy exporter.

Economic Comment

The Bank of England unleashes QE2.1

The Bank of England extended QE2, in line with our expectation. This may mark the end of the Bank’s easing cycle unless the economy weakens substantially going forward.

Economic Comment

Maastricht Treaty turned 20, hooray?

The 20th anniversary of the Maastricht Treaty went largely unnoticed due to the euro crisis. Now the officials have come up with stricter fiscal rules to avoid a repeat of this crisis. Only time will tell whether the taken steps are sufficient.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

In the second half of 2011 the Belgian economy experienced a mild recession. Also this year growth of domestic demand will be very weak, partly due to the fiscal consolidation measures.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

Many instantly concluded that Germany’s annual GDP growth in 2011 (3%) implies economic contraction in 11Q4. In our view, such straightforward derivations are unwarranted. That said, the likelihood of GDP contraction in 11Q4 increased markedly.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

The Italian economy fell back into recession in11Q3. The pace of decline probably accelerated in the fourth quarter and we expect a further contraction in 12Q1. The announced austerity measures will hold back growth in 2012 as a whole.

Country Report

Chile (Update country report)

Chile’s economy continued to grow vigorously in 2011, although growth slowed in the course of the year. After large scale protests and strikes, these illustrate that Chile’s social model continues to face challenges.

Country Report

South Korea (Country report)

The death of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-il, has increased political uncertainty within North Korea and led to uncertainty for South Korea. Due to monetary tightening and lower external demand, real GDP growth was 3.3% in 2011.

Country Report

Azerbaijan (Country report)

Azerbaijan is highly dependent on its energy sector and oil exports in particular, which supports the current account and public finances. Economic growth is forecasted at 4% in 2012.

Country Report

Jordan (Country report)

The precarious social situation is the largest country risk in Jordan. The fallout from the Arab Spring protests has forced King Abdullah II to dismiss the government. Economic growth is estimated at a mere 2.6% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012.

Country Report

Nigeria (Update country report

Persistent attacks by the Islamist Boko Haram sect, as well as large-scale strikes and protests following a sudden abolishment of fuel subsidies at the start of 2012, show that Nigeria is very prone to political and civil unrest.

Country Report

Bulgaria (Country report)

Bulgaria is largely praised for its sound macroeconomic and fiscal policies, but its external debt remains high and a slow and complicated bureaucracy, as well as widespread corruption continues to hamper the business environment.