RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Belgium: Good things come to those who wait

The economic recovery carries on as growth of domestic demand increases. Fiscal policy will be less distortive next year and inflation remains low. However, high unemployment and also wage moderation still limit private consumption growth.

Economic Update

Italy: Arrivederci recessione?!

GDP growth stagnated in 13Q3. One cannot talk of a start of economic recovery yet, though. The contribution of domestic demand was negative and there are still significant headwinds. On a positive note, policy uncertainty might fall going forward.

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Te mooi om waar te zijn (Dutch)

Een belangrijke les van de mondiale financiële crisis van 2008 is dat de kapitaalbuffers van banken fors moeten worden verstevigd. De strengere eisen aan de risico-gewogen kapitaalratio van het Bazels Comité –Bazel III– voorzien hierin.

Economic Update

Spain: Basta recesión!

Spanish GDP rose in 13Q3, after nine quarterly contractions in a row. Although positive, we do not expect a quick recovery on the labour market. Based on the Budget 2014, the fiscal effort will be slightly less than in preceding years.

Economic Update

Germany: Steady as she goes

Once again, the German economy posted a positive growth figure in the third quarter. The increase has been entirely domestic-driven. We expect domestic demand to remain strong given the solid labour market and the positive investment outlook.

Economic Update

France: Nombres rouges

The French economy slightly contracted in 13Q3, but this was largely due to a bounce back from the strong 13Q2 figure. We expect the recovery to continue, albeit very gradually. Therefore, we do not envisage a robust improvement in the labour market.

Economic Comment

Eurozone: herstel kost tijd (Dutch)

Ondanks de verbetering van het sentiment in de afgelopen maanden vertraagde de groei van het eurozone-BBP in het derde kwartaal. Dit komt met name door het wegvallen van enkele tijdelijke positieve impulsen uit het tweede kwartaal.

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Wankel perspectief (Dutch)

Met deze titel presenteren wij een voorzichtig positieve Visie op 2014. We benadrukken in deze publicatie primair drie positieve aanknopingspunten. Maar we zien en bespreken ook de grootste risico’s die maken dat we dit perspectief als wankel bestempelen.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2014 - Recovery on a shaky footing

The Dutch economy will not grow in 2014. Unemployment will rise further, and the slight boost provided by the global growth spurt will not be vigorous enough for the country to overcome its domestic woes. US economic performance and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth spurt.

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - Eurozone

The eurozone economy seems to have entered a phase of modest recovery. But, worrisome public finances, limited investment demand and tight credit conditions continue to hamper growth. Current problems are unlikely to be solved by a banking union.

Economic Update

Italy: The road to Rome is still very long

The Italian economy stayed in recession in 13Q2. Sentiment is improving, but domestic demand will be too weak to support growth in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, political turmoil is making markets nervous, which further hampers the recovery.

Economic Update

France: A jobless recovery

A strong GDP figure in 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels show that economic conditions are improving. That said, the GDP figure was boosted by temporary factors while the rigid labour market does not show any signs of recovery yet.

Economic Update

Spain: Adios recesión?

A better than expected GDP figure for 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels suggest that economic conditions are improving. That said, a quick housing market and labour market recovery is not on the cards yet.