RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Impact of tapering on emerging markets

In this Economic Update we take a closer look at the impact of the gradual slowing down of the rate of asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the emerging markets.

Economic Update

Brazil: Economy contracts in third quarter 2013

The third quarter was disappointing for Brazil, as GDP contracted for the first time since 2009 on a quarterly basis. Growth in the coming quarters is likely to be somewhat stronger, but leading indicators suggest that momentum remains rather weak.

Country Report

Country Report Mexico

When President Peña Nieto took office in December last year, he promised to deliver growth. The current figures are however disappointing, but, if his reform proposals will be proved in the coming months, Mexico’s outlook will definitely improve.

Country Report

Country Report Argentina

As her party is unlikely to obtain a two-thirds majority at the congressional elections of late October, Cristina Kirchner is becoming a lame-duck president. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves levels continue to decline.

Country Report

Country Report Panama

Economic growth in Panama is strong due to large infrastructure projects. Whether these projects will boost growth structurally, to an extent that it will outweigh the loss of short-term infrastructural investment-driven growth, remains to be seen.

Economic Report

The Tequila crisis in 1994

In this report we will focus on the crisis of 1994 in Mexico, where a strong devaluation of the peso led to both a currency and banking crisis, while a sovereign crisis was just prevented.

Economic Report

The Mexican 1982 debt crisis

In August 1982, Mexico was the first of many Latin American countries to default on its sovereign debt. This report covers the main characteristics of the Mexican debt crisis as well as its main causes and triggers.

Country Report

Country Report Curacao

Curacao is currently facing difficult times, both politically and economically. While economic growth was again disappointing in 2012, Curacao’s political year was characterized with four different prime-ministers and the killing of a politician.

Economic Update

Brazil: Growth accelerates, but new slowdown likely

Brazil’s economy grew surprisingly fast in 13Q2. In particular, the strong investment growth realised is highly welcome. However, we expect growth to slow down in the second part of 2013.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.

Country Report

Country Report Sint Maarten

Since its independence in 2010, St. Maarten has been building and extending its own institutional framework, whereby this process is executed slower than expected. Furthermore, economic performance has been weak in recent years.

Country Report

Country Report Brazil

The recent mass protests show that Brazil’s middle class has become more vocal in its demands for better public services. Meanwhile, economic growth has continued to disappoint.

Economic Report

The Argentine Crisis 2001/2002

In the late 1990s, Argentina’s currency peg to the US dollar, pro-cyclical fiscal policies and extensive foreign borrowing left the country unable to deal with economic shocks. This led to a severe currency, sovereign debt and banking crisis.