RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Mongolia (Country report)

Mongolia’s economy is recovering on the back of strong international demand for its commodity exports. Growth recovered to 6.1% in 2010 and will remain strong in the coming years. Structurally, Mongolia’s economy is weak.

Country Report

Thailand (Country report)

The unstable political and social situation remains the largest country risk for Thailand. While the situation has stabilized compared to the large-scale violent riots last year, uncertainty remains until the next general elections.

Economic Quarterly Report

Economisch Kwartaalbericht (Dutch)

Bij nagenoeg alle positieve economische ontwikkelingen benoemen we in dit Economisch Kwartaalbericht telkens een aantal mogelijke risico’s. Veelal gaat het om grote onzekerheden die de hele economische werkelijkheid op de kop kunnen zetten.

Economic Quarterly Report

Japan: Een heel ander verhaal (Dutch)

De Sendai aardbeving en tsunami van 11 maart en de nog immer onbezworen nucleaire crisis hebben de dynamiek van de Japanse economie volledig veranderd.

Economic Quarterly Report

Alert op onrust (Dutch)

Een veranderende wereld is beangstigend voor de Chinese centrale overheid. De Arabische Lente, een wisseling van de wacht en stijgende inflatie kunnen allemaal leiden tot meer sociale onrust in het land.

Country Report

The Philippines (Country report)

The Philippine economy is estimated to grow by 5-6% in 2011. The triple disaster in Japan could adversely affect this estimate, as the country has deep trade and investment links with the Philippines.

Country Report

Australia (Country report)

The Australian economy has weathered the global financial and economic crisis relatively well and the deterioration in the public budget balance is easily accommodated by the low sovereign debt level.

Country Report

India (Country report)

India is showing very robust economic growth, after a mild slowdown during the global financial crisis. The economy is estimated to have expanded by 9.1% yoy in 2010 and grow by 9.0% yoy in 2011. The largest country risks are found in the political and social situation.

Country Report

China (Country update)

China’s economy continues to perform strongly in spite of numerous rounds of monetary tightening, with year-on-year (yoy) real GDP growth remaining steady at 9.8% and 9.7% in the last two quarters. Inflation remains stubbornly high at around 5% yoy in each of the past three months.

Country Report

Vietnam (Country report)

Vietnam’s pro-growth policies will result in economic growth of around 6% year on year (yoy) in 2011, but at the expense of macro-economic stability. External imbalances are very high, as the current account posts large deficits and the country’s liquidity position is in a dismal state.

Country Report

Country Report Japan

Japan is an economy running high-speed into uncharted territory. It has boosted growth potential to the maximum relative to its ageing population, boasting among the highest rates of labour force participation and effective retirement age among the industrialises world.

Country Report

New Zealand (Country Report)

New Zealand prior to the crisis seems to have developed a social convention where the government does the saving, leaving spending to households and firms (making New Zealand the exact opposite of Japan in this regard).

Economic Report Dutch version

Japan: tragic triple disaster

On Friday, 11 March, 2011, Japan was struck by a historically severe earthquake, a devastating tsunami, and a nuclear crisis that is yet unresolved.The impact on the lives of those affected is foremost in our minds, dwarfing the huge economic impact, the magnitude of which we attempt to estimate in this Special Report.

Country Report

Indonesia (Country Update)

After growing 4.5% in 2009, the economy is back to its pre-crisis growth level of around 6%. Downside risks to growth are a lower than expected global growth, a reversal of foreign capital flows, and/or a bursting asset bubble.