RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Mexico/Canada: are free-trade agreements with the EU beneficial?

We find evidence that the current bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between Mexico and the EU raised exports by 4%. An improved BTA between the EU and Mexico could mitigate some of the negative fallout of a potential NAFTA collapse, albeit to a small extent.

Economic Report

Latin America: FX outlook - Carry on, and on

Latin American currencies have outperformed USD this year with carry providing a notable boost. MXN was a notable outperformer. Performance will be good if volatility remains low. A surge in risk aversion could lead to rapid carry trade unwinds.

Economic Report

Latin America: the times, they are changing

Anti-establishment sentiment is growing in Latin America, just like elsewhere on the back of a growing and increasingly vocal middle class. Latin America continues to shift away from populism and policy is becoming more constructive.

Economic Report

Latin America: The only way is up

Having reached rock bottom in 2016, Latin American economies are performing better in 2017. Most countries have fared well the adverse period, though fiscal positions have weakened across the board.

Economic Report

Latin America: turning the populist page

The past year has been tumultuous for Latin American politics, characterised by a shift to the right in election results and away from populism in policy, and numerous corruption scandals. Current risk levels are likely to linger in the coming year.

Economic Report

How to tackle the ‘Custo Brasil’

Due to the so-called “Custo Brasil” Brazil is a relatively expensive place to do business. Three important growth bottlenecks are primarily responsible for this Custo Brasil: the tax system and red tape, lack of good infrastructure and human capital constraints.

Economic Report

Democracy, Brazilian style

Brazil’s political system generally makes it difficult and time-consuming to implement far-reaching reforms. Furthermore, the system seems to be affected by a lot of patronage and corrupt practices. In this report we explain why this is the case.

Economic Report

Brazil’s social challenges

In the past decade, Brazil has managed to substantially bring down its traditionally high levels of inequality and poverty. However, inequality is still high and relatively weak public services result in institutional inequality.

Economic Report

Brazil’s economic model: In need of a revamp

The recent performance of the Brazilian economy has been disappointing. We conclude that consumption and commodity exports cannot continue to drive growth. To reinvigorate its economic model Brazil needs to increase investment and productivity.