RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Japan: Wave of concern

As we expected, the Bank of Japan did not move during its last meeting and will likely remain in wait and see mode for a while. In the meantime, a second wave of coronavirus infections is hurting Japan’s economic recovery.

Economic Comment

Japan: Rising cases and rising tensions

The Bank of Japan will probably take a break from stimulus, for now. Meanwhile, coronavirus cases are on the rise again in Tokyo, as are tensions with China. Both represent downside risks to our outlook.

Economic Comment

Japan: Even more stimulus, yet not enough

Japan’s government has increased its stimulus package to a whopping 43% of GDP. This, together with increased central bank stimulus, will prevent bankruptcies and unemployment from rising sharply. However, Japan’s economy is already suffering and we still think it will shrink by 4.8% this year.

Economic Comment

Japan: A deep recession

We expect Japan to fall in a deep recession this year with the economy shrinking by 5%. This is due to looming lockdowns in, amongst others, Tokyo and Osaka and because Japan’s exports will sink as global demand dries up.

Economic Report

Japan: Decent economic growth in first half of 2019, central bank weighs options

Japan’s economic growth did not disappoint in the first two quarters of 2019. Domestic focus is on the BoJ meeting in September and the VAT hike in October. The external environment remains challenging because of slowing global activity and rising tensions with South Korea.