RaboResearch - Economic Research

Presentation

Prinsjesdag-presentatie (Dutch)

We hebben de cijfers en conclusies van onze Prinsjesdag-publicaties samengevat in een presentatie.

Country Report

Peru: positive economic outlook

Peru is witnessing a recovery of economic growth, largely driven by increased mining production. Despite a widened twin deficit, prospects are positive.

Country Report

Saudi Arabia: reforms are necessary to reduce economic reliance on oil

Lower oil prices put increased pressure on the Saudi economy. Growth is slowing down and the fiscal situation is under pressure. Implementation of the diversification plan (vision 2030) would be a positive factor, but will be difficult to achieve.

Country Report

United Arab Emirates: weathering low oil prices on the back of large buffers

Although the UAE’s economy is more diversified and less dependent on the oil sector than the surrounding Gulf States, low oil prices will continue to negatively affect economic and fiscal metrics. Despite the expected twin deficit in 2016 and 2017, we won’t expect any problems in meeting financing requirements due to UAE’s considerable sovereign wealth fund.

Country Report

Jordan’s economy remains in jeopardy

Jordan’s social and economic dynamics are severely affected by the Syrian crisis, while the government is making progress in consolidating the budget and reducing reliance on a limited number of energy sources.

Country Report

Bulgaria: growth recovering, but challenges ahead

After a mild recovery of the fiscal balance in 2015, the challenge for Bulgaria lies in continuation of prudent policy to enable stable future growth and ensure stable levels of public debt.

Country Report

Croatia: successful reforms much needed but unlikely

Croatia’s short term outlook has improved on the back of higher private consumption, investment and exports. Unfortunately, chances of successful structural and fiscal reforms by the new government are dim, due to its small and likely unstable majority.

Country Report

Luxembourg: staying on top in a changing environment

Luxembourg continued to show robust growth in 2015. New fiscal and financial regulation is heading towards Luxembourg, challenging its financial sector-driven growth model.

Country Report

Portugal: weak reform momentum threatens feeble growth

Portugal continued to grow in 2015, after exiting the EU/IMF bailout programme in 2014, which signals a substantial increase of economic and financial stability. However, reform momentum is weak while the country still has many vulnerabilities.

Country Report

France: Growth returns but remains structurally weak

Economic activity is recovering after several years of near-zero growth. But the French economy still faces many structural challenges, including a relatively weak competitive position, high unemployment and weak public finances.