RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

The race to predict India’s economic data

We show that so-called nowcasting can be used to gauge economic growth in India more accurately. We correctly predicted India’s recent slump in economic activity. Moreover, nowcasting can also be used to validate recent claims that India’s GDP figures are overestimated. We find not ground for these claims.

Economic Report

Recession and CLOs

While CLOs performed well during the last crisis, and there is less dependence on short-term wholesale funding, the rise of loans with reduced investor protection and illiquidity are risk factors that could turn a run-of-the-mill recession into something worse.

Economic Report

Brexit update - Johnson in the lead

Conservative MP’s have pre-selected Johnson and Hunt as the candidates the party member can vote for to become the new PM. Johnson has so far been in the lead, which spells a lot of trouble for Brexit.

Economic Report

Digitaal centralebankgeld: bezint eer ge begint (Dutch)

De WRR bepleit invoering van digitaal centralebankgeld (CBDC). Dit is een forse verandering van het financiële stelsel. Het leidt tot hoge kosten, kan de stabiliteit ondermijnen en noopt tot een nieuwe inrichting van het bancaire toezicht. Goed idee?

Economic Report

Wet arbeidsmarkt in balans: maatregelen en effecten (Dutch)

De invoering van de Wet Arbeidsmarkt in balans (WAB) maakt vaste contracten goedkoper en iets minder vast. Flexibele contracten worden duurder en iets minder flexibel. Zo krijgen oproepkrachten meer rechten. Ook introduceert de WAB een afbakening tussen uitzenden en payrolling.