RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Eurozone pent-up demand: big and decisive or over-estimated and uncertain?

A recovery in consumption this year seems all but certain, but expectations about its vigour – underpinned by the ‘pent-up demand’ narrative – could well be too optimistic. Although Eurozone households have stacked up some EUR600bn in additional saving since the pandemic, we argue that a sizeable part of those savings will probably stick. In this research note we explore three scenarios.

Special

Second wave of Covid-19 impacts economic recovery in India

The number of new infections in India will bottom out in May. Economic pain will come through decreased private consumption after mobility levels dropped. RBI continues its accommodative policy but relatively high debt levels limit the government’s flexibility to support the economy.

Special Dutch version

The Future of Bitcoin

This special answers some questions around the Bitcoin. Bitcoin will probably not be very successful as a means of payment. It is too unstable, too slow and too opaque. However, the Bitcoin could survive in the long run as a high risk asset class.

Special

Scotland: A proxy vote for independence?

The Scottish regional election is potentially shaping up to have a big impact on the future of the UK. Scottish independence has returned to the top of the agenda and the SNP will argue to have a fresh mandate. The economic argument for Scottish independence is weak, but the Conservatives aren’t in the position to credibly make this case.

Economic Report

Travel bubble brings Australia out of isolation

The establishment of a travel bubble between New Zealand and Australia has more symbolic than economic value. Even though the Australian labour market has shown a strong performance over the last months, the end of the JobKeeper program is hanging above the labour market like the sword of Damocles.

Economic Report

China: The wider implications of Huarong’s woes

One of China’s major state owned entities, Huarong, has come under stress recently. The situation is a test case for Beijing’s willingness to bail out struggling state owned firms that are big and important.