Economic Report
We have revised our economic forecasts for the Indian economy downward to -10.6% for fiscal 2020/21 and expect the economy to grow by 8.9% in fiscal 2021/22. The main reason for the revision is that monthly economic data show that the pace of recovery is much slower than anticipated.
Economic Report
Inflation in India has been stubbornly high. Although we expect inflation to come down, we believe the downward trajectory will be short-lived. Against this backdrop, the Reserve Bank of India is probably reluctant to cut its policy rates.
Special
A second wave of Covid-19, contested elections, civil unrest, rising tensions with China and insufficient fiscal stimulus provide a toxic cocktail that are likely to pose a threat to the recovery and cause considerable market turbulence in Q4.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
We forecast that eurozone GDP will contract by 8.9% in 2020, followed by growth of 4.3% in 2021. The crisis widens the gap between countries, sectors and socio-economic classes.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The Dutch economy is expected to contract by 5.2% in 2020. Measures to combat corona, uncertainty and rising unemployment are making the recovery patchy.
Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version
Although the Dutch housing market is still booming at present, we believe that rising unemployment and the fear of job losses will temporarily cause a dip in prices and fewer house sales from early 2021 onwards.
Economic Comment
Based on the latest trade data, China only has five months left to crank up imports of US goods and services by USD 100bn in order to reach the 2020 target in the Phase One trade deal. This seems unrealistic and we believe that the Phase One trade deal will break down before the year is out.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The global economy has bottomed out and started its recovery. However, the recovery is marred by uncertainties such as more waves of coronavirus infections, lurking negative effects on the labor market and productivity and rising geopolitical tensions.
Economic Comment
The Indian economy contracted by 23.9% in Q2 due to one of the most stringent COVID-19 lockdown globally. Despite a rallying rupee, uncertainty remains large, especially on the geopolitical front.
Economic Comment
Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe has unexpectedly announced his resignation. This means Japan faces a period of increased uncertainty.
Economic Comment
The Dutch government announced its third business support package. It will retain most measures from its predecessors, but slowly phase them out.