Economic Comment
Hard economic data usually comes available at quite some lag. To gauge the economic impact of COVID-19 we look at more timely economic indicators that are readily available. Data on traffic jams, international flights, and restaurant bookings are released sooner and more frequently. This helps us to better monitor the economic situation during the COVID-19 crisis.
Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version
Rising unemployment, or the fear of it, will have a large effect on demand for owner-occupied homes. We expect the number of sales in the Netherlands to fall in the coming years, and we anticipate declining prices in the second half of 2020.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The Covid-crisis further widens the differences within the Eurozone. Southern member states have less fiscal space to spur economic recovery. Additionally, the composition of the economy makes these countries more vulnerable. For 2020 we forecast a GDP contraction of 9.1%.
Special
In this new Phase One Monitor (POM) we track progress toward the target values set for US exports to China in 2020 and 2021 which were agreed upon in the Phase One trade deal. Based on data up to and including April, China currently is not following a trajectory which puts it on track to reach the targets in the deal.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
The Dutch economy is expected to contract by 5.7 percent this year as a result of the corona crisis. The weakness in the labor market and the poor outlook for exports mean that the recovery will be modest.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
A deep global economic recession will be followed by a relatively limited recovery, due to continuing social distancing. Since political tensions between the US and China have flared up again, we expect the ‘Phase 1’ deal to break down before the year is out.
Economic Comment
Japan’s government has increased its stimulus package to a whopping 43% of GDP. This, together with increased central bank stimulus, will prevent bankruptcies and unemployment from rising sharply. However, Japan’s economy is already suffering and we still think it will shrink by 4.8% this year.
Special
The European Commission presented a recovery fund for the EU. Although there a quite some hurdles to be taken, a compromise does not look out of reach. The pooling of liabilities is further completes the European capital market.
Special
The past months have been particularly challenging for the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa). It was hit almost simultaneously by the major drop of hydrocarbon prices and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.
