RaboResearch - Economic Research


Backcasting the US economy with Dynamic Factor Models

Using Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) we try to backcast US macroeconomic variables. The composition and interpretation of the factors differ pre- and post-2008-crisis. In terms of backcasting accuracy the DFM outperforms the Autoregressive model pre-crisis, but not post-crisis.

Economic Report

The great Brexit gamble paid off

The great Brexit gamble paid off: Prime Minister Johnson got his majority in the House of Commons and he will now be able to ‘get Brexit done’. The UK will leave the EU by January 31.


The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?

Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.