Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Lower taxes and higher wages support consumption in the Netherlands. But slower global growth will weigh on export and investment growth, while the latter also suffers from the nitrogen crisis.
Special
Using Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) we try to backcast US macroeconomic variables. The composition and interpretation of the factors differ pre- and post-2008-crisis. In terms of backcasting accuracy the DFM outperforms the Autoregressive model pre-crisis, but not post-crisis.
Economic Report
The great Brexit gamble paid off: Prime Minister Johnson got his majority in the House of Commons and he will now be able to ‘get Brexit done’. The UK will leave the EU by January 31.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
We expect the global economy in 2020 and 2021 to show the slowest rate of growth since the financial crisis. This is mainly because the global economy is reaching the limits of its output capacity and industrial activity and world trade are weakening further.
Special
Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.
Economic Update
The Netherlands was again amongst the quickest growing countries of the Eurozone in the third quarter, mainly due to increased consumption. However, slowing world trade and domestic issues with nitrogen and PFAS will drag down future growth.
