RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Spain: Strong recovery does not justify complacency

To preserve healthy economic growth rates in the medium term, the Spanish government should speed up the labour market recovery and deal with remaining challenges. Elections in 2019 could break the reform deadlock, but not necessarily in a positive way.

Economic Report

India: GDP data revision - Eat your cake, don’t ‘cook’ it

There is much controversy surrounding India’s GDP back-series for years 2004/05 to 2011/12. The discussion now has been politicized, which is undermining the credibility of Indian statistics. This is worrying, especially for an emerging economy which can easily lose the support of international investors.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: To vote or not to vote?

Prime Minister May decided to cancel the ‘meaningful vote’ of the British Parliament on the deal with the EU scheduled for 11 December. Instead she will attempt to get more concessions from the EU during the summit on 13-14 December. Getting the deal through the British Parliament remains a challenge.

Economic Comment

The next US recession

The US yield curve is getting flatter, which means that long term rates are only slightly higher than short term rates. We expect the yield curve to invert in 2019, which means that long rates fall below short rates. This would signal a recession in 2020.