Economic Report
Friday, Catalonia unilaterally declared itself independent. Shortly after, the Catalan government was fired and the region is now governed from Madrid. Civil unrest is set to rise. Yet Catalonia is not independent and remains part of Spain.
Economic Comment
On 22 October, Argentina held legislative mid-term elections and the ruling coalition Cambiemos claimed the victory - an important vote of confidence regarding its reform path.
Economic Comment
Abe and his LDP-Komeito coalition were victorious at yesterday’s lower house elections. The disappointing election result for the opposition side is not surprising when one takes into account the short amount of time for a structured election campaign.
Economic Report
Saturday October 21st, the central government will start taking control of the Catalan region. The Catalan economy suffers the most from the independence push. The institutional crisis will not endanger Spain’s economic recovery, but growth could slow a bit.
Special Dutch version
The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.
Special
The economic costs of a Brexit in 2030 are expected to range between GBP 400bn (hard Brexit) and GBP 260bn (soft Brexit), compared to a scenario where the UK would continue to be a member of the EU (Bremain). This equals £11,500 - £7,500 per British worker.
Infographic Dutch version
Infographics accompanying the publication 'The permanent damage of Brexit'.
Economic Comment
Dutch coalition partners finally announce their plans. The plans feature changes to the tax system that should encourage labour supply. Tax cuts and extra spending result in deterioration in fiscal balance, but the fiscal outlook remains healthy.
Economic Report
Latin American currencies have outperformed USD this year with carry providing a notable boost. MXN was a notable outperformer. Performance will be good if volatility remains low. A surge in risk aversion could lead to rapid carry trade unwinds.
Economic Report
Anti-establishment sentiment is growing in Latin America, just like elsewhere on the back of a growing and increasingly vocal middle class. Latin America continues to shift away from populism and policy is becoming more constructive.
Economic Report
Having reached rock bottom in 2016, Latin American economies are performing better in 2017. Most countries have fared well the adverse period, though fiscal positions have weakened across the board.
Economic Report
The short term outlook for F&A commodities is defined by volatility. In the long term, growing Chinese demand bodes well for F&A exports. Brazil seems well placed to benefit from this.
Economic Report
A large-scale protectionist package by the US could hurt Latin American economies via lower exports, foreign direct investment and remittances. Our base case is that such a package will not come given the short term adverse impact on the US economy.
