RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

China: a balancing act between growth and reforms

The government is currently performing a balancing act between keeping the economy going and safeguarding social and financial stability. Authorities continue to follow a step-by-step strategy to reduce excess capacity in heavy industry state-owned enterprises.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

China: when will the hangover of the debt binge set in?

Macro economically, China is in calmer water now but medium term risks have been on the rise, at the same time. Debt keeps piling, especially for state owned enterprises, which boast ever lower profits. As a result the asset quality of loans, and consequently financial stability, are coming under pressure.

Special Dutch version

How fast is China actually growing?

In this Special, we present our newly developed indicator for monitoring economic growth in China: the China Activity Indicator (CAI). In addition to five traditional indicators (such as electricity output), this also includes an indicator of private consumption. According to the CAI, growth in China in 2015 is closer to 5% than 7%.

Economic Report

Asia-Pacific: many risks but no new Asian crisis in the making

A balance of payments crisis is unlikely in today’s Asia. Most countries have improved their current accounts and FX reserves. The rising debt load may however pose problems, although it nowadays is mainly local currency denominated.