RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global economic outlook: room for stronger growth recovery

Recent data support our expectation of 3% global economic growth in 2015. There are actually factors present that could generate a stronger recovery in growth, but the outlook is overshadowed by uncertainty regarding Greece and Ukraine.

Economic Update

Italy: economic recovery around some corner

In 2014, GDP volume shrank with 0.4%. In 2015, the economy is expected to grow for the first time in four years, albeit very slowly. Initially, the recovery is supported by consumption and foreign demand and next year also by fixed investment.

Economic Update

Germany: growth continues

We expect that German economic growth accelerates in 2015 on the back of increasing private consumption growth. Falling inflation combined with high nominal pay rises will lead to a further rise in disposable income.

Country Report

Country Report Malaysia

Growth in Malaysia is expected to slow slightly in the coming years. Lower oil prices will hurt government income in 2015. As the political career of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has ended, the opposition coalition has been weakened.

Economic Update

Belgium: slow economic growth continues

We expect the Belgian economy to grow by around 1¼% in 2015, supported by household consumption and exports. There will be further economic growth (1½%) in 2016, driven by the global economy and investment, but consumption growth will then slow down.

Special

Oil: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The recent plunge in oil prices will be a net plus for the global economy. The pain will be felt by major oil producers and for some this may cause serious problems. However, we still expect the global economy to gain more than the losers will lose.

Economic Update

Spain: solid GDP growth on the back of domestic recovery

Rabobank expects the Spanish economy to grow around 2¼% in 2015. This growth is primarily driven by private consumption but public consumption and investment will also contribute positively. Net exports are expected to contribute negatively to GDP as import growth remains strong on the back of domestic demand.

Country Report

Country report Singapore

Strong institutions and policymaking support (potential) GDP growth, while the country’s small size and ageing pose challenges. Healthy balance sheets and a solid international creditor position reduce Singapore’s susceptibility to (global) shocks.