RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

France: recovery remains weak

Recent data show that the French economy did not grow in the first half of 2014 and the outlook for the second half is muted. Furthermore, the labour market remains weak and we expect unemployment to decrease at the end of 2015.

Economic Update

Germany: Europe’s growth engine faltered

In the second quarter, the German economy shrank by 0.2% q-o-q. Without the negative impact of the warm winter, GDP growth would probably have been positive. Hard data also shows that the German economy had a strong start of the current quarter.

Country Report

Country Report Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia-Herzegovina faces major socioeconomic challenges in the aftermath of devastating floods and months of violent protests. The upcoming general elections in October are unlikely to improve the situation, but increased IMF support should alleviate possible financial problems.

Country Report

Country Report Kenya

2013 was a crucial year for Kenya, as domestic political stability improved on the back of peaceful elections, which contributed to better economic prospects. Unfortunately, these improvements were offset by an increasing terrorist security threat.

Country Report

Country Report Kuwait

Kuwait’s hydrocarbon dependent economy slowed in 2013 and prospects for 2014 are stable. The political focus seems to be shifting towards the crown prince succession, which might stall progress booked on economic reforms in the past year.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Poland’s economy continued to rebound strongly in the first half of this year, but growth is likely to weaken amid mutual EU and Russian sanctions. As prime minister Tusk heads for Brussels, a new cabinet may be nominated as soon as early September.

Country Report

Country Report Lithuania

Six months ahead of its euro area accession, Lithuania’s economy performs strongly. While reciprocal EU and Russian sanctions are unlikely to derail growth this year, tensions with Russia may result in further boycotts of Lithuanian products.

Country Report

Country Report Nicaragua

Nicaragua’s economy performed rather well in 2013 and the economic outlook remains favourable. However, its institutional framework has weakened further and the president can now be re-elected and be elected for more than two times.