RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Thanks to a policy-induced rebound of domestic demand and solid exports, Hungary exited recession last year while keeping its budget deficit below 3% of GDP. Yet, sustainability concerns remain, as unorthodox policies will likely continue beyond the parliamentary elections in April.

Country Report

Country Report Latvia

Following a period of strict fiscal consolidation and economic rebalancing, Latvia joined the euro area in 2014. Its economy continues to rebound strongly from a very deep recession in 2009 despite tight local credit conditions and weak external demand.

Economic Comment Dutch version

House sales rising, prices stabilising

Statistics Netherlands, in collaboration with the Dutch Land Registry, has just published the number of transactions and the prices of second-hand houses in the Netherlands for February 2014. Sales again surprised on the upside and prices are consequently bottoming out.

Economic Update

Italy: goodbye recession, hello stagnation

In 13Q4, Italy’s recession officially came to an end. Looking forward, the economic outlook has improved somewhat, but GDP growth will greatly depend on exports. Meanwhile, in Rome the game of musical chairs was won by the centre-left democrat Renzi.

Economic Update

Belgium: Economic recovery pushes through

In the final quarter of 2013, GDP volume rose with 0.5% q-o-q. Looking forward, the economic recovery is expected to push through as the economy faces fewer headwinds. Nevertheless, a full revival of economic growth and the labour market needs time.

Economic Quarterly Report

The Netherlands: economy picks up more strongly than expected

Last year the Dutch economy emerged from recession with convincing growth figures. Overall the outlook for the Dutch economy is certainly brighter than it was two years ago, with fewer downside risks and strong improvement in consumer sentiment.

Economic Update

Germany: die ‘Exportweltmeister’

The German economy posted a solid growth figure in the final quarter of 2013. Unexpectedly, it was almost fully driven by exports. For the current year, we expect German growth to be supported by both exports and domestic demand.

Economic Quarterly Report

Global Economic Outlook: sand in the engine of growth?

Although the recovery is likely to continue in the west, global economic growth is picking up very gradually. While a few emerging markets are directly vulnerable to tapering, rapid credit growth may pose a risk to future growth in more countries.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Poland’s economy regained steam in the second half of 2013, as domestic demand gradually picked up. Yet, depending on the decision of the Constitutional Court on a major pension reform, growth could be dampened by additional fiscal austerity measures.

Economic Update

France: Consumption driven recovery

Recent data show that the economic recovery remains in place, albeit very gradual. Ongoing real wage growth will make sure that household consumption –once again- will remain an important driver of GDP growth this year.

Economic Update

Spain: Growing while rebalancing

Recent data show that the gradual recovery of the Spanish economy will continue going forward. In addition, ongoing export growth and muted wage pressure indicate that the much needed rebalancing process is still on track.