RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report Dutch version

Budget Day: a repetition of moves

Over the past few years the wide variety of headgear – whether making or refraining from political statements – has seemed to have a permanent hold on the headlines on Budget Day.

Economic Report

The Tequila crisis in 1994

In this report we will focus on the crisis of 1994 in Mexico, where a strong devaluation of the peso led to both a currency and banking crisis, while a sovereign crisis was just prevented.

Economic Report

The Mexican 1982 debt crisis

In August 1982, Mexico was the first of many Latin American countries to default on its sovereign debt. This report covers the main characteristics of the Mexican debt crisis as well as its main causes and triggers.

Country Report

Country Report Oman

Small-scale social unrest remains present in Oman and the increase in current government spending is a concern. Succession risks remain, as long as Sultan Said al Said fails to appoint a successor.

Country Report

Country Report Curacao

Curacao is currently facing difficult times, both politically and economically. While economic growth was again disappointing in 2012, Curacao’s political year was characterized with four different prime-ministers and the killing of a politician.

Economic Report

The Russian Crisis 1998

Russia’s fixed exchange rate regime together with its fragile fiscal position appeared to be unsustainable in the course of 1998. By then an outbreak of a severe banking, currency and sovereign debt crisis could not be prevented.

Economic Update

Italy: The road to Rome is still very long

The Italian economy stayed in recession in 13Q2. Sentiment is improving, but domestic demand will be too weak to support growth in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, political turmoil is making markets nervous, which further hampers the recovery.

Economic Update

Brazil: Growth accelerates, but new slowdown likely

Brazil’s economy grew surprisingly fast in 13Q2. In particular, the strong investment growth realised is highly welcome. However, we expect growth to slow down in the second part of 2013.

Economic Update

India: Battered but not beaten

Tapering talk has sent the Indian rupee to record lows, but India is not a blameless victim. It struggles with fundamental issues constraining economic growth, large twin deficits and declining investor confidence on the back of inadequate reforms.

Economic Update

Economic Update Russia

Russia’s economic growth has continued to slow this year and we expect 2.2% growth in 2013. The central bank is likely to loosen monetary policy amid falling inflation. The government’s stimulus measures are justifiable, but no effect is expected in the very short term.

Economic Update

France: A jobless recovery

A strong GDP figure in 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels show that economic conditions are improving. That said, the GDP figure was boosted by temporary factors while the rigid labour market does not show any signs of recovery yet.

Economic Update

Spain: Adios recesión?

A better than expected GDP figure for 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels suggest that economic conditions are improving. That said, a quick housing market and labour market recovery is not on the cards yet.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.