RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Russia: Slowdown continues, stimulus expected

The most recent data shows that economic growth in Russia continues to slow down. There have been talks of a fiscal stimulus package, which is feasible given Russia’s healthy public finances. However, it is not without risks in the long term.

Economic Update

India: Weak recovery after disappointing year

In 2012-13, growth in India fell to the lowest rate in a decade. We expect a modest recovery going forward. A favorable monsoon is likely to boost growth somewhat, but the current account deficit constrains the room to apply (further) stimulus.

Economic Update

Brazil: Recovery continues to disappoint

Growth in Brazil disappointed once again in 1Q2013. Investment was very strong, but we expect it to become less vigorous in the rest of the year. Meanwhile, private consumption slowed down strongly. We now expect growth of only 2¼% this year.

Economic Quarterly Report

The Netherlands: Economy caught in austerity trap

continued focus on Brussels’ 3% of GDP deficit ceiling will again prevent the Dutch economy from growing in 2014. It would be better if the cabinet accelerated structural reforms instead of carrying out additional spending cuts.

Economic Quarterly Report

United Kingdom: Has the recovery finally arrived?

There are some signs that the UK recovery is gathering momentum. But the growth outlook remains very much dependent on the external economic envi-ronment. A re-escalation of the euro crisis can throw a spanner in the works. This is the translation of a part from the Dutch version of the Economic Quarterly.

Economic Quarterly Report

China: Disappointing growth not necessarily bad

Contrary to earlier expectations, China’s economic growth slowed slightly. This was not necessarily bad news, as the growth rate remained between 7.5%-8%, whereas significantly stronger or weaker growth would currently both be undesirable. This is the translation from the Dutch version of the Economic Quarterly -

Special

Conditional Euro T-Bills as a transitional regime

Since early 2010, tensions within the Eurozone have risen sharply. What started with a Greek confession that both projections for and past realizations of government debt and deficit statistics were blatantly off the mark, developed into a Euro crisis of systemic proportions.

Country Report

Country Report Egypt

The political stalemate in Egypt pushes the downtrodden economy further into the abyss. However, Egypt is expected to muddle through until the elections, but the downside risks are high.

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly June 2013

The bottom of the Dutch owner-occupied housing market is in sight. The fall in house sales has virtually come to a halt and price declines have also slowed. We expect this development to continue and that house prices may stabilise as well in 2014.

Country Report

Country Report Suriname

The Surinam economy has grown relatively rapidly recently. The country has a current account surplus and government debt is low at 20% of GDP. Shortcomings are weak external relations, weak institutions and a narrow economic base.

Country Report

Country Report Nicaragua

Nicaragua has a weak political and economic structure, as well as a low standard of living. Economic growth has been quite strong in recent years. Nicaragua’s heavy reliance on support Venezuela is a big vulnerability.

Country Report

Country Report Mexico

Important sectors of the Mexican economy are characterized by a low level of competition. Positive in this respect is that new President Peña Nieto intends to reform these markets with the help of the opposition.

Country Report

Country Report Peru

Investment in large mining projects is likely to continue in Peru, although an escalation in the conflict with local communities could hurt the investment climate. A U-turn in his energy policies has dented the popularity of President Humala.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

The recent batch of positive data suggest that the recovery has arrived. The recent pick up of sentiment and loosening of financial conditions suggest that activity will slowly gather pace in the coming months. But the growth outlook remains weak.