RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

The Cyprus bailout program

The Cyprus bailout program presented on Monday 25 March is much better than the proposal presented a week before. A Cypriot euro exit has been averted, but the country will face a difficult and uncertain economic future. 

Economic Quarterly Report

United Kingdom: growth stagnant, employment up?

UK’s recovery is still very sluggish while the labour market is going from strength to strength. The economic outlook is unlikely to improve materially unless the pace of fiscal consolidation is slowed.

Economic Quarterly Report

Light in the middle of the tunnel

The world has entered calmer waters since the beginning of this year. As such, some are already claiming that they are ‘seeing the light at the end of the tunnel’. We caution that there may still be some tunnel ahead.

Economic Quarterly Report

The Netherlands: heading for seven lean years

The Dutch economy has failed to recover from the Great Recession of 2008/2009 over the past several years. It contracted again in 2012 due to relatively low export growth and a drop in domestic spending. We do not expect this outlook to change to any significant degree this year or next.

Economic Update

Economic Update India

India's Central Statistical Office government is now expecting GDP growth in Financial Year 2012/13 to come in at only 5% y-o-y. We expect the economy to recover somewhat this year. Economic growth is thus likely to strengthen to 6-6.5%.

Economic Update

Economic Update Russia

Preliminary data shows that the Russian economy grew by 3.4% y-o-y in 2012. However, this masks the fact that the economy slowed fairly sharply over the course of the year. We expect growth to remain subdued at 3% in 2013.

Economic Update

Economic Update Brazil

For the Brazilian economy, 2012 has been a very disappointing year, as GDP growth fell to 0.9%. So far, the recovery of the Brazilian economy has been weak, but in recent months some positive developments became visible.

Economic Report

The eurozone needs an economic fire department

The actions we see when a fire erupts in a building are not unlike those observed during the eurozone crisis. The lesson here is that the eurozone must always have an economic fire department in combination with stronger institutions.

Economic Comment

The impact of Chavez’s death

The death of Hugo Chávez on Tuesday not only creates economic and political uncertainty for Venezuela, but also for some of its neighbours.

Economic Update

Economic Update The Netherlands

The Dutch economy is currently experiencing a “triple-dip” recession. For the time being, it appears the recession will con¬tinue, but growth is expected to pick up during the course of 2013.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

In 12Q4 GDP shrank for the sixth consecutive quarter. Uncertainty about the policy of the next government has led to increased yields on both government bonds. It may also weaken the fragile consumer and producer sentiment.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

Although due to temporary factors, the contraction of both GDP and industrial production intensified considerably in 12Q4. On a positive note, Spain is expected to get the 'green light' for further postponing its budget deficit target this year.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

GDP contracted in the fourth quarter amid a downturn in foreign demand. We expect a recovery in the first quarter, whereby domestic demand turns into a major growth driver in 2013. This is supported by the recent increase in the sentiment indicators.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

The picture in emerging markets is one of moving forward, but not knowing at what pace or how many bumps there are in the road. We maintain the view that 2013 should be slightly better than 2012, but downside risks remain.

Country Report

Country Report China

Economic growth in China unexpectedly slowed in 1Q2013. This slowdown, however, is not unwelcome at this moment and the government is thus not concerned. The ongoing credit growth is a concern, however, as this increases risks to the banking sector.