RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Outlook 2014 - China: balancing reforms and growth

After an ambitious start, China’s new leadership seems to have eased back on its reform drive. Maintaining a sufficiently strong growth rate is still the priority. For 2014, this implies only incremental reforms and a growth rate of around 7¼%.

Country Report

Country Report China

Growth in China is rebounding but, unfortunately, still driven by investment growth on the back of government stimulus and credit growth. The government thus still prioritizes on short-term growth, which makes implementing reforms a difficult task.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.

Economic Quarterly Report

China: Disappointing growth not necessarily bad

Contrary to earlier expectations, China’s economic growth slowed slightly. This was not necessarily bad news, as the growth rate remained between 7.5%-8%, whereas significantly stronger or weaker growth would currently both be undesirable. This is the translation from the Dutch version of the Economic Quarterly -

Economic Comment

China: Growth slows in first quarter

China´s economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2013, against expectations. Chinese authorities don’t seem too concerned (yet) and take a cautious approach regarding further growth supporting policies. China´s growth estimate for 2013 is lowered to 7.5%-8%.

Country Report

Country Report China

Economic growth in China unexpectedly slowed in 1Q2013. This slowdown, however, is not unwelcome at this moment and the government is thus not concerned. The ongoing credit growth is a concern, however, as this increases risks to the banking sector.