RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

In our final economic update of this year, we present our regional outlooks for next year. While we generally expect a fragile economic recovery, some regions are particularly exposed to the euro area debt crisis or an unresolved US fiscal cliff.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

UK's GDP was boosted by temporary factors in 12Q3. Output is expected to contract in 12Q4. The improvement in the labour market is slowing down. Inflation is expected to fall less rapidly, which will be an extra headwind for households in 2013.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

After the pickup in 12K3, several indicators point to a deterioration of economic activity in 12K4. For 2013 domestic demand is expected to remain weak amid large tax hikes, which will be imposed on both households and businesses.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

In the third quarter, the Italian recession was more moderate than in the first half of the year. Although business sentiment improved in the past months, the recession is set to continue.

Economic Update

Economic Update The Netherlands

The Dutch economy contracted by 1.1% q-o-q in the third quarter of 2012. The contraction is disappointing, particularly as net trade no longer contributed to growth.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2012: Looming recession

Although the Dutch economy will continue its recovery in 2011 and 2012, it will be at a significantly slower pace than in 2010. The country is faced with weakening world trade growth since second half of 2011, and the government is poised to step up its austerity programme in 2012.

Country Report

Panama (Country Report)

Panama's economy continues to rank among the world's fastest growing economies. In order to save future Panama Canal revenues, a sovereign wealth fund has been established, which could strengthen public finances in the long-term.

Country Report

Spain (Country Update)

The Spanish government is seriously tackling its financial and economic issues. But the country is currently in a perfect storm of recession, missed budget deficit targets, rising government debt and rising opposition to government policies.

Country Report

Slovenia (Country Update)

Slovenia is currently experiencing a double-dip recession as a result of fiscal consolidation and banking sector problems. Implementation of the necessary reform plans is still at risk, as pressure from the public and trade unions remains high.

Country Report

Ireland (Country Update)

Economic stabilisation and restructuring and recapitalisation of the banking sector have pushed government bond yields for Ireland below those of Italy. But uncertainty remains high, with the economic recovery still far from complete.

Country Report

Italy (Country Update)

Italy is taking significant steps to reduce the budget deficit and reform the economy. But the former is being undermined by the return of recession while on the reform front much still needs to be done.

Country Report

Mexico (Country Update)

After years of congressional gridlock, Mexico's newly-elected president Enrique Pe?a Nieto has presented a comprehensive structural reform package. While the reforms look promising, he will likely face protracted negotiations with the opposition.

Country Report

Portugal (Country Update)

Although Portugal has been very successful in abiding by the conditions of the IMF/EC/ECB troika and therefore has received official financial assistance without delay, the economic and financial situation remains very precarious and uncertain.

Country Report

Latvia (Country Report)

Following its very deep recession in 2008/10, Latvia currently belongs to the fastest-growing EU member states. Thanks to its successful austerity strategy and low inflation, the country could join the euro area in 2014.


Funding for growth. Now and in the future

How do businesses fund their growth in the coming years? We conclude that large companies fund themselves to a significant extent with equity, whereas small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) depend mainly on bank lending for their funding.