RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

The leading indicators are all weakening, pointing towards softer growth in 12Q4. Hard data are still more resilient, thanks to strong exports. Housing prices continued to rise in 12H1. Consumer confidence is improving amid a worsening labour market.

Special

Political risks in the eurozone (Special)

The eurozone's south is implementing austerity measures while the north is buying them the time to do so. Economic issues are usually extensively discussed. But what are the political risks that might render this strategy unfeasible?

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

GDP increased by 0.5% q-o-q in 12Q1. Activity is likely to be far weaker in Q2. Even a minor contraction in GDP cannot be excluded. Unemployment rose for the third month in a row in June.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

The PMI manufacturing data in April is pointing to economic contraction in 12Q2. But the other reliable leading indicators suggest the recovery is still on track.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

Many instantly concluded that Germany’s annual GDP growth in 2011 (3%) implies economic contraction in 11Q4. In our view, such straightforward derivations are unwarranted. That said, the likelihood of GDP contraction in 11Q4 increased markedly.