RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Bangladesh (Country report)

Bangladesh's economy continues to prove its resilience amid a worsening external environment. Yet, despite strong economic growth it remains one of the world's poorest countries.

Economic Report

Dutch mortgage market: a liability?

Dutch gross mortgage debt totals 106% of GDP, which is higher than any other EU country. While there are certain risks associated with high levels of mortgage financing, the risks are not as high as some suggest.

Economic Comment

Did Germany's GDP contract in 11Q4?

November’s industrial production figure has been interpreted by some as proof that Germany’s economy dipped into the red in the final quarter of 2011. We still believe a recession is not a done deal yet.

Economic Comment

Germany: Is recession a done deal?

Some have taken Germany’s recent annual growth figure (3%) as a sign that the economy has contracted by 0.2%-0.3% in 11Q4. But this will only hold true if the data on the first three quarters are not revised, which may well be the case.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update France

The French economy showed its resilience in 11Q3, but we expect the negative effects of the debt crisis to become more visible in the coming months. There is no reason for much optimism.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update the Netherlands

Economic signals suggest that the economy is still at amber. Consumer confidence dropped to a point lower than the trough in 2009, exports declined in October for the first time in two years and unemployment is back at the peak of January 2010.

Economic Comment

Is a weaker euro desirable now?

The depreciation of the euro may not result in the much-needed boost to the region’s net exports. However, it is making life difficult for households. The rise in the price of oil to near record highs is adding to eurozone’s economic woes.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

We kick-started the new year with a slew of positive news. December’s leading indicators were stronger than expected, which indicate that the economy may have gained a bit of momentum going into 2012.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

In 11Q3, export growth managed to keep the Spanish economy out of recession. But the available economic data for 11Q4 point to GDP contraction in that quarter. For the first quarter of this year we also expect GDP to fall.

Economic Comment

Hungary: Jumping off a cliff? (Macro Comment)

Hungary’s government is becoming increasingly autocratic, thereby threatening to undo years of democracy-building, while simultaneously risking a sovereign default.

Country Report

Tanzania (Country report)

Despite chronic power shortages and rampant inflation, Tanzania’s economy managed to grow at an estimated 6.4% in 2011.