RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

India (Country update)

Economic growth in 2011/12 slowed to 6.5% from 8%+ growth figures in the years before. This year, economic growth is expected to be 6% to 6.5%. The government is seen as all important to kick-start economic growth, but the ruling UPA is a lame duck.

Country Report

Ghana (Country report)

Ghana's main economic risk is the country's persisting twin deficit on the current account balance (of 9.4% in 2011) and fiscal balance (of 4% of GDP in 2011).

Country Report

Kenya (Country report)

The upcoming general election period may lead to political and social instability in Kenya, comparable to 2007's election unrest.

Country Report

Oman (Country Update)

Oman's economy will grow by 4.9% in 2012, buoyed by domestic demand and external demand for its oil and gas exports. A downside risk is the uncertain global economy, especially the eurozone peripheral debt crisis and slowing growth in China.

Country Report

Saudi Arabia (Country Report)

Saudi Arabia is a prosperous country due to an abundance of hydrocarbon resources and is estimated to grow by 5.6% in 2012. The country was hardly affected by contagion from the Arab Spring protests, due to substantial government hand-outs.

Country Report

Mauritius (Country update)

Mauritius? open economy is very vulnerable to the eurozone crisis and the global economic slowdown.

Economic Report

Coping with life after debt (part 1)

In the first part of this series, we will show that debt, which has risen sharply in most advanced countries, is not necessarily a bad thing if it is at sustainable levels.

Economic Report

Coping with life after debt (part 2)

In part 2, we look at the post-crisis balance sheet adjustment process and conclude that (i) it will take many years to complete and (ii) the transitional phase will be economically painful.

Economic Report

Successful African regional integration?

Although negotiations for a continental free trade area in Africa have started and progress is on course given recent news reports, the plan is rather optimistic.

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly

In the second quarter of 2012 second-hand house prices fell further. We have seen the number of houses for sale continue to rise, while disposable income is dropping. Therefore we do not expect this picture to change during the coming quarters

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

UK GDP contracted by a whopping 0.7% q-o-q in 12Q2. This was largely due to the Diamond Jubilee and an extremely wet weather.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

With a 0.7% quarterly contraction of GDP in 12Q2, the current Italian recession is now a year old. As in the preceding quarters, the economic decline is mainly the result of falling domestic demand.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

This month we witness that concerns on economic growth have triggered interest rate cuts in countries around the globe. China has posted its lowest economic growth in three years.

Economic Update

Economic Update The Netherlands

The Dutch economy continues to look to international trade for impetus, while domestic demand dynamics weakens. In the second quarter of 2012, all indicators continued to point in this direction.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

We expect a mild contraction of French GDP in 12Q2. This would be the first contraction since early 2009.