RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Bad news from Spain, default still unlikely

A lot of bad news has emanated from Spain over the past couple of weeks. This is likely to keep the pressure on the Spanish government bond market. But we still maintain the view that a sovereign default in Spain is unlikely.

Economic Report

Is the credit tap on or off?

Consumers and businesses often need credit for large expenditures. Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SME) are highly dependent on banks for financing and continuity in lending is crucially important to them.


Turkey: Achievements and challenges (Special)

Over the past decade, Turkey broke with its turbulent past, while positioning itself as a regional power. It now enjoys stable public finances and a well-regulated financial sector. But, despite these achievements many challenges remain.


Why people rebel: Political risk analysis

The Arab Spring took the world by surprise. In a matter of months, protests spread from Tunisia to almost every country in the Middle East and North Africa. Why do people rebel? What triggers these uprisings? This study looks for answers.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

Spain is back in recession. The economy contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in 12Q1 – exactly matching the decline in the previous quarter.

Economic Update

Economic Update The Netherlands

The decommissioned cabinet reached agreement with parties outside the coalition on a supplementary package of measures, with which the government deficit will be reduced from 4.6% to 3% of GDP in 2013.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

China’s growth has reached its lowest level since the financial crisis. The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 50bps. Brazil’s central bank also cut its policy rate.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

The PMI manufacturing data in April is pointing to economic contraction in 12Q2. But the other reliable leading indicators suggest the recovery is still on track.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

Recent figures show that the Belgian economy did not experience a recession last year and that 2012 started with growth. Although encouraging, this does not pave the way for solid growth during the course of the year.

Economic Report

Why is the euro crisis not ending? (part 2)

In part 2, we propose a number of steps the European policymakers can take in order to end the crisis. All it takes is a little bit of imagination and a lot of willingness.

Economic Report

Why is the euro crisis not ending? (part 1)

In the first part of this series, we will show that fiscal indiscipline is not at the root of this crisis. This is why the current policy prescription (fiscal austerity) has not been the silver bullet most hoped for.