RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Australia (Country report)

The Australian economy has quickly shaken off the economic disruption caused by the Queensland floods. The reduction of the budget deficit is slower than expected, but given the very low level of government debt this is no cause for concern.

Country Report

Austria (Country report)

The pace of Austria’s export-led economic recovery is likely to slow down in the coming quarters thanks, in part, to the challenging external environment. The risks to this outlook are considered to be broadly balanced.

Country Report

Belgium (Country report)

The new government has immediately announced a credible austerity package. Although political instability is not off the table for the coming years, the financial position of the private sector and the institutional power are strong.

Country Report

Denmark (Country report)

Barely recovered from the house price correction and the deep 2009 recession, the Danish economy is now hampered by eurozone headwinds. Despite the monetary and fiscal stimulus we expect only meager growth going forward.

Country Report

Norway (Country report)

So far the effects of the European debt crisis on the Norwegian economy have been relatively modest, mostly due to robust growth of private consumption. The housing market should be a key policy area in the coming years.

Country Report

Sweden (Country report)

The strong economic recovery came to a sudden halt in 11Q4 due to the adverse spillover effects of the European debt crisis. But the country has ample space to stimulate domestic demand by both fiscal and monetary policy.

Country Report

Croatia (Country report)

After two years of GDP contraction, Croatia’s economy stagnated in 2011, growing by a meager 0.2%. For 2012, the situation in the eurozone, Croatia’s main export market, and sluggish domestic demand are expected to result in another recession.

Country Report

Kazachstan (Country update)

Kazakhstan’s banking sector remains one of the country’s major weaknesses, while the authorities are increasingly intolerant of oppositional voices.

Country Report

Bahrein (Country report)

The largest country risks for Bahrain lie in the political and social spheres. We expect the social unrest originated in the Arab spring uprising last year to continue as the grievances of the Shi’a community are not likely to be met.

Country Report

Brazil (Country report)

Brazil’s economy grew by only 2.7% in 2011, after the high 7.5% growth of 2010. The government has tried to stem the appreciation of the real by further tightening its capital controls.

Country Report

Mexico (Country report)

Reflecting a very gradual US recovery, Mexico's economic growth is expected to cool down to 3.4% this year. Mexican politics are dominated by the July 1st legislative and presidential elections that will likely be won by the opposition.

Economic Comment

UK: Expansionary fiscal austerity is a myth

The recent GDP release suggests that the UK has also joined the recessionary club. However, reliable leading indicators point to a high chance of output being eventually revised upwards.

Country Report

Estonia (Country report)

Estonia made a swift recovery from the global crisis and its own real estate crisis that shook the economy in 2009. In 2011, the economy grew by 7.5%. The ongoing turmoil in the eurozone is expected to affect Estonia’s small and open economy.

Country Report

Italy (Country report)

The Italian economy fell back into recession in the second half of 2011. We expect the recession to continue in the first half of 2012 and for unemployment to rise further.

Country Report

Japan (Country report)

Recent macro data suggest that Japan’s economic activity is picking up, and supply chains are being restored faster than expected. The economy is expected to grow robustly in the short term. However, the long-term prospects are far less rosy.