RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Curaçao and Sint Maarten: Frozen credit

Faced with an unsustainable current account deficit and declining international reserves, the Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten introduced a six month freeze on private credit extension, but more needs to be done.

Economic Comment

Egypt: a case of bad timing (Macro Comment)

A clash between the ruling military council and the Muslim Brotherhood, last weekend, threatens Egypt’s fragile economic and political stability, as it could delay a much-needed IMF deal.

Economic Comment

Irish economy still struggling to recover

After an impressive start, the Irish economy fell back into recession in the second half of 2011. With domestic demand expected to fall further and export growth held back by sluggish growth, the economy is expected to show a modest recovery in 2012.

Economic Comment

UK Budget: another missed opportunity

The Chancellor decided to stick to his guns. This is unfortunate given the weak economic outlook. The private sector is itself busy cleaning its balance sheet and the external environment remains challenging.

Economic Comment

India’s budget wins little applause

The budget for India’s fiscal year 2012/13 aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.1% of GDP from 5.9% of GDP this year. With a rise in tax revenue and a more realistic growth assumption, next year’s budget seems more in reach than this year.

Economic Comment

Turkey: keeping heads cool helps

While Turkey’s industrial production growth is slowing, both inflation and the current account deficit remain elevated, suggesting that the central bank must not ease policy just yet.

Economic Comment

Vietnam: Stay on course (Macro Comment)

After experiencing somewhat of an economic rollercoaster ride in 2011, inflation in Vietnam is finally easing. Nonetheless, Vietnam’s economic situation remains vulnerable and the government should make sure it stays on course.

Economic Quarterly Report

Government Finances: Reforms or cuts?

The current Dutch government has booked the Prime Minister’s official residence called ‘the Catshuis’ for three weeks to agree on billions in new spending cuts. The Dutch government says restructuring government finances is the answer to the crisis.

Economic Quarterly Report

Netherlands: Always look on the bright side

The Dutch economy is back in recession. After a quarter-on-quarter contraction in the third quarter of 2011, the size of the Dutch economy shrank by 0.7% in the last quarter of 2011. It is expected to pick up again in the course of 2012.

Economic Quarterly Report

Global Economic Outlook: Cautious optimism?

The global economy is performing better than most feared. But there are still many headwinds that can choke the recovery. The good news is that the downside risks may be mitigated by adequate fiscal and monetary policy measures.

Economic Comment

Pace of austerity and fiscal fundamentals

The fear of a rating downgrade or losing market access has caused many advanced countries to embark on a very aggressive fiscal consolidation plan. This can potentially be harmful for output and employment growth.