RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Hungary (Country update)

Hungary’s economic situation continues to deteriorate with alarming speed. While the ongoing eurozone crisis puts pressure on Hungary’s economy, the government continues to spook investors.

Country Report

Romania (Country report)

Romania’s economy was severely impacted by the global crisis and only started to recover last year, reporting a 2% growth rate. We expect growth to slow in light of the eurozone recession and deleveraging by eurozone banks.

Country Report

Dominican Republic (Country report)

Economic growth in the Dominican Republic fell from 7.8% in 2010 to 4.1% last year, as the government had to rein in fiscal stimulus under an IMF standby-agreement. No major policy changes are expected.

Economic Update

Recession virtually certain

It is virtually certain that the Dutch economy slid into recession in the second half of last year - only two years after the last recession in the second quarter of 2009. This sluggish economic performance has many negative consequences.

Country Report

India (Country report)

Economic growth in India is expected to fall below the ‘magic’ 7% in fiscal year 2011/12. Five state elections are planned for 2012, which will give more information on the popularity of the government.

Country Report

Malaysia (Country report)

Being one of the most open countries in Asia, Malaysia is sensitive to swings in external demand. Demand for Malaysia’s electronics is expected to be weaker in 2012, but a rise of oil and gas prices would benefit Malaysia as a net energy exporter.

Economic Comment

The Bank of England unleashes QE2.1

The Bank of England extended QE2, in line with our expectation. This may mark the end of the Bank’s easing cycle unless the economy weakens substantially going forward.

Economic Comment

Maastricht Treaty turned 20, hooray?

The 20th anniversary of the Maastricht Treaty went largely unnoticed due to the euro crisis. Now the officials have come up with stricter fiscal rules to avoid a repeat of this crisis. Only time will tell whether the taken steps are sufficient.

Economic Update

Economic Update Belgium

In the second half of 2011 the Belgian economy experienced a mild recession. Also this year growth of domestic demand will be very weak, partly due to the fiscal consolidation measures.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

Many instantly concluded that Germany’s annual GDP growth in 2011 (3%) implies economic contraction in 11Q4. In our view, such straightforward derivations are unwarranted. That said, the likelihood of GDP contraction in 11Q4 increased markedly.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

The Italian economy fell back into recession in11Q3. The pace of decline probably accelerated in the fourth quarter and we expect a further contraction in 12Q1. The announced austerity measures will hold back growth in 2012 as a whole.

Economic Comment

Dutch pension cuts imminent (Macro Comment)

Three of the largest Dutch pension funds have recently announced that pay-out cuts are imminent. The reasons are insufficient recovery of financial markets, low interest rates and increasing life expectancy.

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly

Dutch Housing Market Quarterly

The Dutch existing homes market is still showing no sign of recovery. In the fourth quarter of 2011 prices continued to drop and fewer houses changed hands. This picture is not expected to change appreciably in the coming quarters.