RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Peru (Country Update)

Peru's macroeconomic policies have remained prudent and Peru's economy is likely to grow by 5.5%-6% a year in 2012 and 2013, but social tensions surrounding mining activity remain high.

Economic Report

Coalition agreement: the housing market

First we had the Spring Agreement, and now we have a coalition agreement. In addition to decisions about all kinds of other areas, measures have been taken for the further reform of the housing market.

Country Report

Turkey (Country Update)

Turkey's economy appears to be headed for a soft-landing, after nearly overheating in 2011. While domestic demand growth came to a halt, exports took over as the main driver of growth. For 2012, we expect growth to come in at roughly 3%.

Country Report

Egypt (Country Update)

Egypt's economy is slowly recovering from the turmoil surrounding the Arab spring and subsequent events. With an elected government in place, some of the uncertainty of the past years has been removed.

Country Report

Malta (Country Report)

Despite the fact that Malta fell back into recession this year, its economy and banking sector have been relatively resilient over the past years. Malta is expected to record modest growth for 2013.

Economic Report

A slice of Danish: the Danish mortgage model

Although the traditional Danish mortgage model offers interesting points for consideration, it would be undesirable to copy it directly. It is more important to explore ways to induce institutional investors to invest in the domestic mortgage market.

Country Report

Algeria (Country Report)

Growth slowed in Algeria on account of reduced energy production and weaker demand from Europe. Still, due to an expected increase in oil production and further economic diversification, we expect growth rates to average 5% in the coming years.

Economic Comment

China's growth rate slows further

In the third quarter, China's economic growth continued to slow, as had been expected. However, the data also shows some green shoots. We expect that growth will slightly accelerate in the last quarter, implying the growth slowdown has bottomed out.

Special

Framework for an inclusive food strategy

In this Special, questions vital for shaping new food sourcing strategies and the identification of new opportunities for increased global food production are addressed. Co-operatives are identified as key to this transformation.

Special

Political risks in the eurozone (Special)

The eurozone's south is implementing austerity measures while the north is buying them the time to do so. Economic issues are usually extensively discussed. But what are the political risks that might render this strategy unfeasible?

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

In 12Q2, the Italian economy recorded its fourth quarterly decline. The economy will remain in recession in the second half of the year, but we expect the pace of contraction to moderate.

Economic Update

Economic Update The Netherlands

The second forecast of 12Q2 GDP growth by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) did not bring any surprises: quarterly growth was maintained at 0.2%. Net trade was the only factor that positively contributed to economic growth.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

French GDP stagnated in 12Q2 for the third quarter in a row. The recently presented 2013 budget shows that the budget deficit will be brought down predominantly by tax hikes. This does not bode well for domestic demand next year.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

UK GDP was revised further upwards in 12Q2. A number of indicators are pointing to a stronger recovery. That said, it makes sense to wait for the autumn data to draw a more definitive judgement on the underlying strength of the economy.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

Several emerging markets continue to experience a slowdown in growth. Growth in 12Q2 went down in both Russia and Turkey, while growth in China is likely to slow down further in Q3 as well. Meanwhile, industrial production in Mexico remained strong.