RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Chile (Update country report)

Chile’s economy continued to grow vigorously in 2011, although growth slowed in the course of the year. After large scale protests and strikes, these illustrate that Chile’s social model continues to face challenges.

Country Report

Azerbaijan (Country report)

Azerbaijan is highly dependent on its energy sector and oil exports in particular, which supports the current account and public finances. Economic growth is forecasted at 4% in 2012.

Country Report

South Korea (Country report)

The death of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-il, has increased political uncertainty within North Korea and led to uncertainty for South Korea. Due to monetary tightening and lower external demand, real GDP growth was 3.3% in 2011.

Country Report

Jordan (Country report)

The precarious social situation is the largest country risk in Jordan. The fallout from the Arab Spring protests has forced King Abdullah II to dismiss the government. Economic growth is estimated at a mere 2.6% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012.

Country Report

Bulgaria (Country report)

Bulgaria is largely praised for its sound macroeconomic and fiscal policies, but its external debt remains high and a slow and complicated bureaucracy, as well as widespread corruption continues to hamper the business environment.

Country Report

Nigeria (Update country report

Persistent attacks by the Islamist Boko Haram sect, as well as large-scale strikes and protests following a sudden abolishment of fuel subsidies at the start of 2012, show that Nigeria is very prone to political and civil unrest.

Country Report

Bangladesh (Country report)

Bangladesh's economy continues to prove its resilience amid a worsening external environment. Yet, despite strong economic growth it remains one of the world's poorest countries.

Economic Report

Dutch mortgage market: a liability?

Dutch gross mortgage debt totals 106% of GDP, which is higher than any other EU country. While there are certain risks associated with high levels of mortgage financing, the risks are not as high as some suggest.

Economic Comment

Did Germany's GDP contract in 11Q4?

November’s industrial production figure has been interpreted by some as proof that Germany’s economy dipped into the red in the final quarter of 2011. We still believe a recession is not a done deal yet.

Economic Comment

Germany: Is recession a done deal?

Some have taken Germany’s recent annual growth figure (3%) as a sign that the economy has contracted by 0.2%-0.3% in 11Q4. But this will only hold true if the data on the first three quarters are not revised, which may well be the case.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update the Netherlands

Economic signals suggest that the economy is still at amber. Consumer confidence dropped to a point lower than the trough in 2009, exports declined in October for the first time in two years and unemployment is back at the peak of January 2010.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update France

The French economy showed its resilience in 11Q3, but we expect the negative effects of the debt crisis to become more visible in the coming months. There is no reason for much optimism.

Economic Comment

Is a weaker euro desirable now?

The depreciation of the euro may not result in the much-needed boost to the region’s net exports. However, it is making life difficult for households. The rise in the price of oil to near record highs is adding to eurozone’s economic woes.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

We kick-started the new year with a slew of positive news. December’s leading indicators were stronger than expected, which indicate that the economy may have gained a bit of momentum going into 2012.