RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update France

Based on disappointing macro data in 11Q2 and a fall in confidence levels, we have decided to revise our GDP-growth forecast for both 2011 and 2012 slightly downwards. Private investments will continue to play their role as a stable growth driver.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update United Kingdom

The 0.2% q-o-q growth in 11Q2 is blamed on a host of ‘special factors’. But this is absurd, in our view. The lackluster post-recession recovery suggests the harsh austerity measures have been very ill-timed.

Economic Quarterly Report

The Netherlands: No surprises

While the economy still appeared to be firing on all cylinders in the first quarter of 2011, by the second quarter the increase in economic activity had stagnated all but completely. The Dutch economy grew by only 0.1% on a quarterly basis, a rate that nevertheless did not come as a surprise

Country Report

Ghana (Country report)

In a region where political stability is hard to come by, Ghana stands out. The country is one of the most stable democracies and has one of the lowest corruption rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Country Report

Uzbekistan (Country report)

Uzbekistan’s commodity driven economy has benefitted from higher commodity prices and the economic recovery in Russia. However, official figures should be interpreted with caution. Economic policies continue to support growth which is fuelling inflation.

Country Report

Suriname (Country Report)

In early 2011, Suriname’s government implemented a number of drastic measures, including a currency devaluation and an increase of the fuel tax. The measures are likely to improve the fiscal position of the government, which declined in the run-up to the 2010 elections.

Country Report

Mauritius (Country report)

Mauritius is a politically and socially stable island in the Indian Ocean. The government has been able to generate an average growth rate of 4%, and to lift many out of poverty since gaining independence from the UK in 1968. The stability is the biggest asset of the country.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update the Netherlands

In 11Q2 the real economy grew by only 0.1% q-o-q. However, this was not entirely surprising. Growth in 11Q1 was driven by private investment in the construction sector. In 11Q2, investment growth slowed. Consumers were also tight-fisted.

Country Report

India (Country update)

India is showing very robust economic growth, even though it is easing this year compared to last year. The economy is estimated to expand by 7.9% in 2011.

Country Report

Kenya (Country report)

Kenya has regained a sense of political stability after the political turmoil that followed general elections in 2007. In August 2010, a new constitution was adopted in a peaceful vote. However, the run-up to new general elections at the end of 2012 poses a major threat to Kenya’s fragile stability

Country Report

Poland (Country report)

Economic growth is expected to be robust at around 4% this year. However, the risks of economic headwinds are rising – EU slowdown, strong Swiss franc, and fiscal consolidation.