RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update Dutch version

Monthly Update The Netherlands

The recent freeze has caused a sharp surge in gas production and this will presumably push growth figures up for the fourth quarter of 2010. With the cold weather, consumers spent more, though not by choice. Consumers still lack confidence, while producers end the year positively.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update Spain

We expect the recovery in 2011 to be sluggish, similar to last year. Domestic demand is unlikely to grow robustly, while export boosting gains on the back of increased price competitiveness have hardly been realised. As such, it is important that wage growth does not rise in line with inflation. Though this is bad for purchasing power and consumption, it is necessary for the rebalancing of the economy.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update France

The French economy appears to be closing the year strongly in 10Q4, fuelled partly by robust private consumption. When consumers will be restrained in 2011 by austerity measures and slower growth of purchasing power, producers could step in to fill this gap with rising investments. Despite their rising (foreign) order outlook, limited domestic demand and low capacity utilisation mean this scenario is far from certain.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

The recovery had plenty of pace in the closing stages of 2010. That said, the services sector weakened considerably. We expect private consumption to grow robustly in 10Q4. But consumption growth in 2011 will be weak amid the upcoming fiscal squeeze.

Special

Asset bubbles, financial crises and the role of human behaviour

Every time we witness a collapse in asset prices or a financial crisis, we seemoverwhelmed. Even the most experienced investors, economic forecasters and regulators are caught off-guard. But if we look closer at the historical data for the past two centuries, we see dat asset bubles and financial crises are nothing new to mankind.

Economic Report Dutch version

Euro crisis: ‘we’re not like that!’

Investors have been keeping a close watch on the financial situation of a number of eurozone countries since the Autumn of 2009. Financial markets are chiefly concerned about Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

Economic Report

Credit crisis puts mortgage funding in eurozone countries to the test

The credit crisis has affected different European mortgage markets in differing ways. This Special Report argues that those differences can be largely traced to the degree of countries’ dependence on securitisations as a source of funding before the crisis.

Special

A new global financial infrastructure

Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system in 1971, the world’s monetary system has been based on a so-called ‘paper standard’. In this system, the US dollar plays the role of global currency anchor.

Country Report

Country Report Paraguay

Paraguay has posted a very high economic growth rate in 2010, thanks to rapid growth of exports of soybeans and meat. However, the economic structure of the country remains weak, in particular through the strong dependence on agricultural export products.

Country Report

Country Report Romania

The fragile political stability is currently the main weakness of Romania. Although the cabinet survived three votes of no-confidence last year, dissatisfaction also within the coalition over the harsh austerity measures is rising.

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Economic recovery in Bulgaria was weak in 2010 (-0.1%), largely because domestic demand and investment were suppressed by higher unemployment and still tight credit conditions. For 2011 and 2012, a slow recovery is expected to around 2.5% and 3.5%, respectively.

Country Report

Country Report Azerbaijan

After Azerbaijan managed to post strong growth in 2009, slow growth in oil and gas output will constrain GDP growth to between 3 and 4 percent in the coming years.

Economic Report Dutch version

Basel III: tough but realistic

In November 2010 government leaders endorsed the more stringent bank capital and liquidity requirements,as proposed by the Basel committee. Although the new requirements are to be phased in gradually and will be less tough than initially proposed, the impact of the Basel III accord will nonetheless be considerable.