RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2012 (full report)

In 2011, we have seen a sluggish continuation of last year's weak recovery from the Great Recession. There are now, however, indications that the economy is once again heading towards a considerable slowdown in growth.

Special Dutch version

Worse before it gets better

We have never actually exited the financial crisis. The problem simply shifted from consumers' assets to the banks balance sheets and ultimately landed on governments’ laps, which in Europe are currently attempting to transfer it to a supranational level.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

The much-awaited QE2 was finally launched in October after Adam Posen, the arch-dove MPC member, convinced everyone to get on board. The programme does not seem to be a success though. Growth in 11Q3 (0.5%) was in line with expectations.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update United Kingdom

The 0.2% q-o-q growth in 11Q2 is blamed on a host of ‘special factors’. But this is absurd, in our view. The lackluster post-recession recovery suggests the harsh austerity measures have been very ill-timed.

Economic Update Dutch version

Country Update United Kingdom

Recently released data point to very weak private consumption growth in 2011. Of note is the drop in consumer confidence, due to falling real wages. Inflation remains high and the previous rise in commodity prices will push it further towards 5%.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

The preliminary GDP growth figure for 11Q1 (+0.5% q-o-q after -0.5% in 10Q4) shows that the UK economy has completely ground to a halt since last autumn.

Country Report

United Kingdom (Country report)

The UK economic recovery is struggling amid the harsh fiscal squeeze. A significant slowdown in the pace of recovery, which will possibly have adverse spill-over effects to the banking sector, is a major risk, in our view.

Economic Update Dutch version

Economic Update United Kingdom

The 0.6% q-o-q contraction of GDP in 10Q4 was in a word, disappointing. The harsh winter explains part of the slowdown but there are unfortunately other signs pointing to a struggling recovery. Warmer weather may lead to a temporary boost in GDP in 11Q1, but the growth outlook in the coming quarters is not much brighter.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

United Kingdom: economic snowdown

The economic recovery remains sluggish. Households are facing major headwinds and the export outlook remains uncertain. Yet, the government still plans to go ahead with its consolidation measures while hoping for the best.