Special
Advanced G20 countries have really fired up the cash cannon compared to emerging G20 economies during Covid-19. But without this sizeable government spending by both the advanced and the emerging G20 countries, G20’s total contraction could have been four times more severe.
Economic Update
The Dutch economy suffered an exceptional contraction of 3.8% in 2020, which amounts to the largest decline since WW2. The stringent lockdown caused household consumption to fall sharply and hurts the retail sector. Increased investments and industrial production, however, soften the blow.
Economic Quarterly Report
We made small downward revisions to our projections for the Dutch economy following the announcement of a hard lockdown on December 14.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Following the economic decline of an estimated 4.2 percent this year, we expect the economy to grow by 2.4 percent in both 2021 and 2022. Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.5 percent by the end of 2021.
Economic Quarterly Report
Underneath the surface of the macroeconomic turbulence, we see a variety of developments between and among sectors in the Netherlands. But a total recovery is not in the cards for 2021. Sectors are effected by both the economic downturn and the corona restrictions.
Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version
Dutch house prices have risen again sharply in the past year, with larger homes gaining in popularity. However, despite the coronavirus crisis there is no evidence yet of accelerating migration away from the four largest cities. We expect prices to rise further in 2021 and 2022.
Economic Update
We expect the economic impact of the partial lockdown to be smaller than the intelligent lockdown last spring, but consumer spending and investments will be hit hard. Because of the partial lockdown, the government announced extra support in the third support package.
Dutch Housing Market Quarterly Dutch version
Although the Dutch housing market is still booming at present, we believe that rising unemployment and the fear of job losses will temporarily cause a dip in prices and fewer house sales from early 2021 onwards.
Economic Comment
The Dutch government announced its third business support package. It will retain most measures from its predecessors, but slowly phase them out.
Special
The corona crisis has caused major social, economic and political upheaval and has increased uncertainty about the future. We use scenario analysis to shed light on where countries around the world may be headed next.
Economic Update Dutch version
The impact of the corona crisis on the Dutch economy is becoming increasingly visible. Private consumption and daily manufacturing production fell sharply in May, and unemployment rose quickly in June. The outlook for the recovery remains bleak.
