RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

United States: Return of the US debt ceiling

After being suspended for about a year, the debt limit returned on March 2. However, the Treasury Department will take extraordinary measures that could delay a federal government default to September or October.

Economic Report

National emergency on the US-Mexico border

President Trump declared a national emergency on the US-Mexico border that will allow him to divert funds to build the wall. The Democrats are likely to challenge this decision, bringing the country closer to a constitutional crisis.

Economic Report

Very dangerous cars

Trump received the report on the investigation into whether automotive imports are a threat to the US national security. The conclusions have not been made public. Trump now has 90 days to decide – depending on the conclusion of the report – whether or not to impose tariff.

Economic Report

India: 2019 Economic Outlook

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.

Economic Report

Trump’s midterm exam

The midterm elections on November 6 will be crucial for President Trump’s ability to govern in the next two years, especially on domestic issues. Consequently, President Trump’s actions in the near-term should be seen from this perspective.

Economic Report Dutch version

Why the Trump phenomenon is here to stay

The success of anti-establishmentcandidate statistically explained by stagnant median wages and declining manufacturing employment. When these trends persist, Trump and his successors are here to stay.