RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Can fiscal policy fill the gap?

The ECB has little possibilities to stabilize the economy in case of a new recession. Therefore it is important that Eurozone countries have fiscal policy space to fill the gap. Unfortunately the Eurozone countries do not seem to have enough buffers.

Economic Report

Will the Italian government contract yield?

Since budget talks took off a few weeks ago, concerns over the sustainability of Italy’s public finances have risen. Italian government bonds yields are up and bank shares are down. Bond yield volatility is here to stay for the rest of the year.

Economic Report

Brexit update: squaring the circle

The UK government published a long awaited White Paper on the blueprint for the post-Brexit EU-UK relationship. The proposal brings more clarity but not more certainty. Hence the threat of a hard Brexit persists.

Special

Is the Greek debt saga finally over?

A large cash buffer and new debt relief measures limit the risk the Greek government runs into payment difficulties in the short run. Yet due to its high debt Greece stays dependent upon the mercy of Eurozone partners and the markets for a long time.

Economic Report

Brexit update: May-be later

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, averts another crisis and pushes the Brexit can down the road making it likely that the Brexit negotiations run into further delays and the withdrawal agreement is ready only towards the end of 2018.