Economic Report Dutch version
We foresee twee realistically possible outcomes: a bilateral free trade agreement or no agreement. In both of the scenarios, Dutch companies doing business with the UK will face increased barriers to trade.
Theresa May wanted to exploit her enormous lead in the polls to strengthen her Brexit mandate, but this gamble has now backfired. The Conservatives lost their majority in the House of Commons, an arrangement with DUP is now a plausible scenario.
At the moment PM May called for snap elections, the Tories’ had a large lead in the polls. However, the gap with Labour has narrowed over the last few weeks. If the Tories lose their majority, this could have implications for the Brexit outcome.
British Prime Minister Theresa May has called for snap elections to be held on 8 June. A victory for Ms. May seems likely at the moment, which would strengthen her Brexit mandate domestically, and her negotiation position with the EU.
Brexit has officially started since British Prime Minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. The negotiations will be complex, difficult and time consuming and we foresee various roadblocks in the Brexit process.
We take a closer look at the key points in Theresa May’s long-awaited speech about the Brexit-plan. Although it has brought clarity as to where the Prime Minister stands, we see large hurdles when it comes to the execution of this plan.
We expect that UK’s vote to leave the EU will negatively affect economic growth in the eurozone. We believe that the impact in 2016 is rather small, but we lower our growth forecast for 2017 for both the eurozone and the Netherlands by ¼%-point.
In case of a Brexit, a prolonged period of heightened uncertainty is likely, hurting the British financial sector and business investments. Other risks stem from the high private debt and the banking sector.