RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

India: trade wars and capital flight

US trade and monetary policy will have a substantial effect on the Indian economy. We calculate a Indian capital flows model to assess the impact of an acceleration of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Our results show that India would lose USD 22bn in missed capital inflows up to 2022.

Economic Report

Brexit update: transition ON!

The EU and the UK reached an agreement over a transition period on March 19, 2018. That is good for business continuity but does not affect our Brexit outcome base case. Hence, we maintain our view that the economy will slow down in 2018.

Economic Comment

The defence spending gap in the EU

The EU is temporarily exempted from the steel and aluminium tariffs in the US. While seeking permanent exemption, it might be difficult for the EU to increase defence spending to the satisfaction of the US, due to the possibly massive costs involved.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Dutch economic boom to continue

The Dutch economy will grow by 3.1% in 2018 and by 2.5% in 2019. The global recovery boosts exports and a number of countries offer investment and trade opportunities for Dutch firms. Simultaneously, geopolitical events could have a major impact.

Special

Is a US trade war imminent?

Trump’s protectionist steel decision increases the risk of a trade war. But a full scale trade war would hurt the US economy even more than China and the EU.

Economic Update

Italy: elections unlikely to hamper economic recovery

Italians are very upbeat and don’t seem to worry about the upcoming elections. The short-term economic outlook is quite rosy. We expect the next government won’t endanger the recovery, but at the same time won’t improve the weak long-term outlook either.