RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Flexibility – The Key to Energy Transition

Flexibility is a key element in electricity markets dominated by wind and solar PV energy. Besides investing in renewables, we must also invest in assets offering sustainable flexibility such as demand response applications and storage.

Economic Report

The US standoff on the debt limit: an unnecessary political game

In October we could see both a US government shutdown and a government default if the spending and debt bill approved by the House of Representatives on Tuesday does not pass the Senate. This is a game of chicken between Democrats and Republicans that is completely unnecessary.

Economic Report

Delta variant forces Australia into new lockdowns

Australia is facing new lockdowns due to the spread of the Delta variant. Nonetheless, we expect the economic impact to be less severe than last year. Inflation reached a high point of 3.8%. However, the central sees this as temporary and the RBA doesn’t expect to hike rates before 2024.

Economic Report

Economy of India recovers from second wave of Covid-19

India’s economy rebounds quickly and economic pain of the second wave will be concentrated in the second quarter. Inflation number were above inflation target of the RBI in May and June but seem to have peaked. We expect the RBI to remain its accommodative stance for some time to come.

Economic Report

EU Taxonomy Update - First words in a new green language

The EU Commission published the next step in the E.U. Taxonomy in June 2020. It includes a proposal to make all large companies and listed SMEs disclose their alignment with the Taxonomy. This report provides an update on the latest developments.

Economic Report

Australia: Policymakers shifting gears

The recent Australian federal budget represents a shift in budget strategy away from budget prudence towards higher spending. The combination of loose fiscal and monetary stimulus increases inflation expectations. However, the RBA doesn’t expect a rate hike before 2024 due to spare capacity in the economy.

Economic Report

EU Recovery fund officially ready for take-off

The European Commission has received an official go to start borrowing money to finance the EU recovery fund. Funds can start to flow to Member States this Summer. We estimate that these funds will lift Eurozone GDP by 0.5% over this and next year.

Economic Report

Travel bubble brings Australia out of isolation

The establishment of a travel bubble between New Zealand and Australia has more symbolic than economic value. Even though the Australian labour market has shown a strong performance over the last months, the end of the JobKeeper program is hanging above the labour market like the sword of Damocles.

Economic Report

China: The wider implications of Huarong’s woes

One of China’s major state owned entities, Huarong, has come under stress recently. The situation is a test case for Beijing’s willingness to bail out struggling state owned firms that are big and important.