RaboResearch - Economic Research

Column Dutch version

Structural confusion

Assessing US tax cuts, Italian public spending, and Fed or ECB policy all require a distinction between the 'cyclical' and 'structural'. But even when you who know the difference, it is easy to make a policy mistake.

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There is no such thing as a costless Brexit

Leaving the EU has direct and structural economic costs for the UK, irrespective of how the country leaves the EU. The magnitude of the impact depends on the future trade relationship they will negotiate with the EU, and a transition period could soften the blow. From that perspective it is not reassuring that with six months left before ‘Brexit day’ the UK is still divided over the Brexit objectives.

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India: a continuing balancing act for the RBI

A two-equation forecasting model shows that we expect interest and inflation rates to increase in India. It might be worthwhile for the Reserve Bank of India to examine whether it is useful to communicate medium-term forecasts on these variables.