RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Ireland

The build-up of large private sector imbalances related to a housing boom and the financial sector were the prime cause of the crisis. Ireland has successfully reformed its banking sector and economic performance is strong, but challenges remain.

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Greece

Weak private and public finances prior to the crisis are to blame for the severity of the recession and the public debt crisis. Harsh measures triggered a process of sharp economic contraction. The outlook remains bleak and unemployment and debt sky-high.

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Portugal

Both high private and public sector debt prior to the crisis are to blame for the country’s deep recession and public debt crisis. It remains to be seen whether Portugal’s low growth problem has been addressed, with unemployment and indebtedness still very high.

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Spain

In Spain, the build-up of large private sector imbalances related to a housing boom was the prime cause of the crisis. Spain has rather successfully reformed its banks and economy, but the crisis leaves scars in the form of high unemployment and public debt.

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Italy

Public sector debt was already very high and economic growth very weak in the years prior to the crisis. Private sector debt was and still is relatively low. Despite recent structural reforms, the economic outlook remains rather weak and unemployment and public debt high.

Economic Comment

In oil, rebalancing is the key word

According to the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency the oil sector is adjusting to the new reality after the sharp oil price shock of 2014. And that translates to low though increasing oil prices.

Economic Comment

Turkey: surprise landslide victory ensures AKP single-party rule

The AKP’s surprise victory at Turkey’s snap elections restores political stability, but the new cabinet needs to embark on structural reforms and boost central bank independency to uphold investor confidence amid elevated balance-of-payments risks.

Economic Comment

Budget Day 2015: tax reform was not invited to budget party

On September 15th the Dutch government presented its plans for 2016 at Budget Day. The most important budget proposal was a five billion euro tax reduction package, mainly aimed at reducing taxes on labour. However, the tax system will not be reformed, what we view as a missed opportunity.

Economic Comment

Brazil is back to junk

Brazil lost its investment grade with S&P on 9 September. The downgrade underlines Brazil’s enormous fiscal challenges. Political headwinds could further darken the fiscal and economic outlook.