RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

The defence spending gap in the EU

The EU is temporarily exempted from the steel and aluminium tariffs in the US. While seeking permanent exemption, it might be difficult for the EU to increase defence spending to the satisfaction of the US, due to the possibly massive costs involved.

Economic Comment

India: what is the economic impact of the new stimulus package?

The announced stimulus package in October will support the ailing banking sector, but we expect limited additional effects on economic growth of India (of 0.2ppts in fiscal year 2018/2019). Moreover, it is a missed opportunity that the package does not contain measures to foster total factor productivity growth.

Country Report

United Arab Emirates: weathering low oil prices on the back of large buffers

Although the UAE’s economy is more diversified and less dependent on the oil sector than the surrounding Gulf States, low oil prices will continue to negatively affect economic and fiscal metrics. Despite the expected twin deficit in 2016 and 2017, we won’t expect any problems in meeting financing requirements due to UAE’s considerable sovereign wealth fund.

Country Report

Belgium: recovery at a snail's pace

The centre-right government has successfully implemented several policy measures to improve Belgian price competitiveness. High public debt, inflation and security issues are the most prominent downward risks for a stable economic recovery.

Country Report

New Zealand: continuing stress in dairy and housing sector

The economic growth outlook has worsened due to less favorable global outlook, which keeps key commodity prices low. The risk of a sharp correction of house prices in Auckland has induced the government to implement additional macro-prudential measures.

Economic Comment Dutch version

Recent developments in Greece

In the past months, the tensions between Greece and its creditors have grown and so has the risk of a Greek exit from the eurozone. It is only recently that the Greek government seems willing to give in to the tough demands of Europe in return for financial support. Yet it is far from clear when the crisis will be defused and what exactly this will entail.