RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Was nun, Mutti? II: Merkel fights for her political future

The breaking down of ‘Jamaica’-coalition talks last night brings unprecedented political uncertainty to Germany. Political initiative and control is moving away from Merkel towards the President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who can ultimately trigger new elections.

Economic Comment

German deliberations on the ESM

On July 10, the German Constitutional Court holds the first hearing regarding appeals against the ESM, the fiscal compact and an amendment to Article 136 TFEU, which legally anchors a stability mechanism in the Treaty.

Economic Comment

Did Germany's GDP contract in 11Q4?

November’s industrial production figure has been interpreted by some as proof that Germany’s economy dipped into the red in the final quarter of 2011. We still believe a recession is not a done deal yet.

Economic Comment

Germany: Is recession a done deal?

Some have taken Germany’s recent annual growth figure (3%) as a sign that the economy has contracted by 0.2%-0.3% in 11Q4. But this will only hold true if the data on the first three quarters are not revised, which may well be the case.

Economic Comment

Demystifying the German labour market

The astonishing resilience of the German labour market has caught everyone by surprise. But this is mostly due to the government’s short-shift scheme and creative statistics. The question is, therefore, will the labour market deteriorate in 2010?

Economic Comment

Germany no longer the exportweltmeister

China has taken over Germany as the world’s export champion. But this is indeed a positive development for Germany and the government should actively pursue policies to rebalance the economy even more towards domestic demand.

Economic Comment

Germany's 09Q4 growth can disappoint

Germany’s economy has contracted by a record 5.0% y-o-y in 2009. Quarterly growth in 09Q4 should be flat. However, the business surveys and the orders data suggest that economy has expanded moderately in 09Q4.