RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?

Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.

Special

The oil market in turmoil: a case of losers and winners

Scenario analyses shows that a surge in oil prices results in a global economic loss of 0.4ppts-0.9ppts between 2018 and 2022. The economic impact, however, is very unevenly distributed among countries. We distinguish three groups: the vulnerable ones, the lucky ones, and the uncomfortable ones.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global economic outlook: clouds in the rear- view mirror, storm on the horizon?

Economic growth is expected to slow down only slightly this year as global economic conditions are not as dramatic as recent financial markets turbulence suggests. There is no simple and accessible alternative to further monetary easing, whose effectiveness is diminishing while the negative side effects are compounding.

Special

Institutional quality and economic performance

Institutional quality and economic development reinforce each other over the longer term, but we argue that institutional quality leads this virtuous circle. It unlocks growth potential and does not intrinsically suffer from diminishing returns.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Financial Markets

While there will be a devaluation of the Chinese renminbi, the dollar will also become stronger more generally in 2016, due in part to the Fed’s interest rate increases. The ECB is more likely to do the opposite, which will weaken the euro/dollar currency pair further still. Slightly higher capital market rates can be expected though.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Global Economy

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.