RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Tapering, a game-changer?

The start of tapering in January 2014 is not expected to significantly change our global economic outlook. Nevertheless, it might have negative consequences for the bond markets of vulnerable countries, both in the emerging world and the eurozone.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2014

The Dutch economy will not grow in 2014. Unemployment will rise further, and the slight boost provided by the global growth spurt will not be vigorous enough for the country to overcome its domestic woes. US economic performance and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth spurt.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2014 - Recovery on a shaky footing

The Dutch economy will not grow in 2014. Unemployment will rise further, and the slight boost provided by the global growth spurt will not be vigorous enough for the country to overcome its domestic woes. US economic performance and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth spurt.

Special

Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater - Theme brochure Outlook 2014

To coincide with the publication of our macroeconomic Outlook 2014, we are publishing a special companion report titled Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater. In this publication, we present our views on the euro crisis and the future of the monetary union. One of the conclusions of the report is that the current institutional reforms are not far-reaching enough to make the EMU fully immune to future crises.

Special

Some thoughts on Euro T-Bills

This article discusses the ELEC-proposal to introduce Euro T-Bills in the eurozone. It concludes that the design of this scheme has advantages for both strong and weak countries.

Special Dutch version

Why the eurozone needs stronger institutions

The institutional design of the eurozone has undergone a rapid change since the emergence of the European debt crisis. This study details the institutional measures implemented in terms of fiscal, financial and economic integration.

Special

Conditional Euro T-Bills as a transitional regime

Since early 2010, tensions within the Eurozone have risen sharply. What started with a Greek confession that both projections for and past realizations of government debt and deficit statistics were blatantly off the mark, developed into a Euro crisis of systemic proportions.

Economic Comment

China: Growth slows in first quarter

China´s economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2013, against expectations. Chinese authorities don’t seem too concerned (yet) and take a cautious approach regarding further growth supporting policies. China´s growth estimate for 2013 is lowered to 7.5%-8%.

Economic Comment

The Cyprus bailout program

The Cyprus bailout program presented on Monday 25 March is much better than the proposal presented a week before. A Cypriot euro exit has been averted, but the country will face a difficult and uncertain economic future.